低油价有助于俄乌和谈,煤炭和原油再次分化
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-06 03:17
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Low oil prices may facilitate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and there is a divergence between coal and crude oil. The supply of chemical products is increasing, and there will be a divergence between oil - based and coal - based chemical industries [2][3]. - Geopolitical expectations for crude oil are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. The high valuation of asphalt will eventually decline. High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices weaken following crude oil. Methanol fluctuates with the rebound of the coal end. Urea's futures price rises firmly due to the better - than - expected Indian tender. Ethylene glycol rebounds first due to strong coal and weak oil. PX maintains a volatile state. PTA's cost has no strong support, and its basis and processing fees are continuously compressed. Short - fiber is relatively resistant to price drops. The processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips is slightly repaired. PP fluctuates with the divergence of oil and coal support. Propylene fluctuates, and PL is short - term volatile and weak. Plastic fluctuates with a slight boost from the coal end. Pure benzene has a narrow - range fluctuation. Styrene fluctuates weakly with increasing inventory. PVC fluctuates mainly with strong expectations but weak reality. Caustic soda fluctuates weakly with increasing spot pressure [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - View: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. - Main Logic: Overnight oil prices closed down. Russia is considering an air cease - fire, and Trump continues to threaten India with tariffs. The geopolitical situation has both positive and negative developments. The API data shows that US crude oil and diesel inventories continued to rise last week, and the high - operating rate of refineries is expected to be limited in the future. - Outlook: Short - term volatility, focusing on the implementation of US sanctions against Russia [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - View: The spot pressure increases, and the high valuation of asphalt finally declines. - Main Logic: OPEC+ will increase production in September, and the market may refocus on the negative impacts of tariff increases and OPEC+ production increases. The current asphalt spot market is stronger in the north and weaker in the south, and the sales pressure is rising. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has declined but is still at a high level, driving the refinery operating rate to return. - Outlook: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak. - Main Logic: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in September, and the supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. The conflicts in Russia - Ukraine, Palestine - Israel, and the US - Iran relations are expected to ease in the medium - to - long term. China has increased the import tariff on fuel oil, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has decreased. The high - sulfur fuel oil is in a situation of oversupply. - Outlook: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it will fluctuate weakly [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices weaken following crude oil. - Main Logic: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakness of crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread has risen recently, low - sulfur fuel oil is facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure is increasing, which is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. - Outlook: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and has limited demand space for high - sulfur substitution. It currently has a low valuation and fluctuates with crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 PX - View: Cost support is poor, and its own supply - demand changes are limited, maintaining a volatile state. - Main Logic: The raw material price performance is poor, and the cost support is insufficient. The supply - demand situation of PX itself has few changes, and the direct demand has some support after the commissioning of new devices. - Outlook: Volatility [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - View: There is no strong cost support, and supply - demand is under pressure. The basis and processing fees are continuously compressed. - Main Logic: The upstream cost performance is poor, and the support is insufficient. The supply side has both shutdown and restart situations, and the overall supply has no obvious contraction. The demand side has mediocre sales of polyester yarns, and suppliers' active sales have pushed down the basis. - Outlook: Volatility, focusing on the implementation of major plant overhauls at the beginning of August [12]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - View: The driving force is insufficient, and pure benzene fluctuates weakly. - Main Logic: After the Politburo meeting, the macro - sentiment has declined, but there is still some support from the parade expectation. The crude oil price has fluctuated. Recently, there have been concentrated commissionings of pure benzene upstream and downstream devices, and the commissioning rhythm has a great impact on the fundamentals. - Outlook: During the consumption peak season and with sanctions risks, crude oil is temporarily stable in the short term. In August, the supply of pure benzene increases, but there are new downstream commissionings, and the balance sheet is expected to have a slight inventory reduction [14]. 3.1.8 Styrene - View: Inventory continues to accumulate, and styrene fluctuates weakly. - Main Logic: Last week, the macro - sentiment was good, and there was some restocking in the styrene downstream. This week, the restocking sustainability is insufficient, and the support for styrene is weakened. In addition, the supply of styrene itself has recovered, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the new home appliance production schedule data is still average. - Outlook: Recently, due to weather reasons, the port arrivals have decreased, and the downward driving force has weakened. The cost - end pure benzene is stable or slightly stronger, but the driving force for styrene is also limited. Overall, the styrene price may fluctuate slightly weakly [16]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - View: With strong coal and weak oil, ethylene glycol rebounds first. - Main Logic: The cost end has certain support with weak oil and strong coal. Ethylene glycol stabilizes first and rebounds following the coal - chemical industry after hitting the bottom. The overall supply - demand variables are few. The shutdown of a South China plant delays the inventory accumulation expectation. - Outlook: The price fluctuates within a range, and there is an expectation of an inventory inflection point [17]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - View: The cost trend is differentiated, and the price is relatively resistant to drops. - Main Logic: The upstream polymerization cost support is still poor. In the pattern of strong coal and weak oil, it is more resistant to drops than upstream PTA. The short - term processing fee support is relatively strong. The supply - demand pattern has few variables, and the sales performance is mediocre. - Outlook: The short - fiber processing fee shows a weak - stable trend, and there is a medium - to - long - term inventory accumulation expectation. The absolute value of short - fiber fluctuates with raw materials [19]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Grade Polyester Chips - View: The production reduction scale continues, and the processing fee is slightly repaired. - Main Logic: The raw material support is insufficient, and the oil and coal trends are differentiated. With the production reduction on the supply side, the overall decline is less than that of the upstream cost, and the processing fee is repaired. - Outlook: The processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips has support at the bottom, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials [19]. 3.1.12 Methanol - View: The rebound of the coal end has some driving effects, and methanol fluctuates. - Main Logic: On August 5, the methanol futures price rebounded slightly, driven by the short - term coal end. The production enterprises sold at a discount, and the downstream purchased on demand. The olefin demand followed up normally, and other demands were relatively stable. The port inventory increased. - Outlook: Short - term volatility [22]. 3.1.13 Urea - View: The Indian tender exceeds expectations, and exports may change. The futures price rises firmly. - Main Logic: The Indian tender information on August 4 exceeded expectations, which had a positive impact on the market sentiment for exports. The futures trading volume increased, and the price rose. However, the subsequent market still depends on the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals. - Outlook: After the price increase, the market needs actual positive support. Without obvious changes in the fundamentals, attention should be paid to export - related policy information and possible further changes in the current Indian tender before August 8 [23]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - View: The coal end has a slight boost, and LLDPE fluctuates. - Main Logic: On August 5, the LLDPE futures price rebounded slightly. The oil price is in short - term volatile decline, and the supply pressure from OPEC+ production increase makes the crude oil inventory not decline seasonally in the past two months. The macro - end is slightly warmer in the short term, and the coal end still has positive news. The LLDPE's own fundamentals are still under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. - Outlook: The short - term oil price decline and the short - term slight boost from the coal end make the LLDPE 09 contract fluctuate in the short term [25]. 3.1.15 PP - View: The support from oil and coal is still differentiated, and PP fluctuates. - Main Logic: On August 4, the PP futures price rebounded slightly. The coal end has a short - term boost, and the oil price is in short - term volatile decline. The supply side of PP is still increasing, and the demand side is weak. The overseas price is stable, and the export window is limited. - Outlook: Short - term volatility [26]. 3.1.16 PL - View: It mainly follows the fluctuations, and PL is short - term volatile. - Main Logic: On August 5, the PL futures price fluctuated. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the offer price continued to rise slightly. The downstream factories followed up as needed. The short - term market follows the fluctuations of PP and methanol, and the coal end rebound has a boost today. - Outlook: Short - term volatility [27]. 3.1.17 PVC - View: Strong expectations but weak reality, PVC fluctuates mainly. - Main Logic: At the macro level, the strict inspection of coking coal over - production has raised the expectation of supply disturbances, and the sentiment is optimistic. At the micro level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, and the cost is expected to rise. The upstream production is expected to increase, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, the export has improved, and the cost is expected to move up. - Outlook: The market fluctuates with strong expectations but weak reality [29]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - View: The spot pressure is gradually increasing, and caustic soda fluctuates weakly. - Main Logic: At the macro level, the strict inspection of coking coal over - production has raised the expectation of supply disturbances, and the sentiment is optimistic. At the fundamental level, the demand from some areas has increased marginally, but the inventory pressure of 50% caustic soda is increasing, and the upstream may switch to producing 32% caustic soda. - Outlook: The near - month warehouse receipt pressure is large, and there are negative factors such as the loosening of the spot price. The market has a large downward pressure, and attention should be paid to whether the upstream reduces production due to low profits, the downstream peak - season performance, and policy - related disturbances [30]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Inter - Period Spread - The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., including their latest values and change values [31]. 3.2.2 Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [32]. 3.2.3 Inter - Variety Spread - The report provides the inter - variety spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., including their latest values and change values [33].