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中信期货晨报:国内商品期货多数上涨,黑色系普遍上涨-20250806
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-06 03:12
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: Market concerns about US employment decline and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long - term, the weak - dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - dollar assets [5]. - Domestic: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, with a higher probability of incremental policy implementation in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: Earlier in the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff relaxation, hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting, etc. However, the July non - farm payrolls data falling short of expectations and downward revisions in May and June, along with rising unemployment, increased market concerns about US economic decline and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data on August 12, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23, and the August non - farm payrolls [5]. - Domestic Macro: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive economic operation in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting focused on improving the quality and speed of using existing policies, with limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI remained above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the negotiation progress between the US and economies such as China and Mexico [5]. - Asset Views: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and incremental policies are more likely to be implemented in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts, which is favorable for gold. In the long - term, the weak - dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - dollar assets [5]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: After event resolution, capital congestion eases. With insufficient incremental funds, the short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend [6]. - Stock Index Options: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, the short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. Factors to watch include unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals show a volatile upward trend. Key factors to watch are Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend [6]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping on European Routes: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Key factors include tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel Products: After the meeting results are announced, attention should be paid to production restrictions. Key factors include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - Iron Ore: Molten iron production slightly decreases, and market sentiment cools. Key factors include overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - Coke: Supply and demand remain tight, and the fifth round of price increases has begun. Key factors include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - Coking Coal: Market sentiment cools, and the futures price shows an obvious correction. Key factors include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - Silicon Iron: The supply - demand contradiction is manageable, and attention should be paid to cost adjustments. Key factors include raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - Manganese Silicon: Market sentiment cools, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. Key factors include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - Glass: The futures price drop has a negative feedback effect, and spot sales and production start to weaken. Key factors are spot sales and production. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - Soda Ash: Freight costs have risen in the short - term, supporting the spot price. Key factors are soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The US non - farm payrolls data falling short of expectations has put pressure on copper prices. Key factors include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish - than - expected Fed policies, slower - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend [6]. - Alumina: There are still disruptions in Guinea's mines, and alumina prices have risen slightly. Key factors include slower - than - expected mine复产 and faster - than - expected electrolytic aluminum复产. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - Aluminum: Attention should be paid to the inventory build - up level, and aluminum prices will move in a volatile manner. Key factors include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - Zinc: Supply and demand are in a state of surplus, and zinc prices are trending weakly in a volatile manner. Key factors include macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend [6]. - Lead: There is still support at the cost end, and lead prices will move in a volatile manner. Key factors include supply - side disruptions, slower battery exports, and unexpected macro and geopolitical changes. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - Nickel: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are showing wide - range volatility. Key factors include unexpected changes in Indonesia's policies and supply - chain releases. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - Stainless Steel: Nickel - iron prices are strong, and the stainless - steel futures price has closed higher. Key factors include Indonesia's policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - Tin: Supply remains tight, and tin prices will move in a volatile manner. Key factors include the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment cools, and silicon prices are falling in a volatile manner. Key factors include unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market direction is unclear, and lithium carbonate prices will move in a volatile manner. Key factors include less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude Oil: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. Key factors include OPEC + production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - LPG: Supply pressure persists, and the cost end dominates the market rhythm. Key factors include the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Asphalt: After price drops, asphalt valuations are falling along with crude oil. Key factor is unexpected demand. The short - term outlook is downward [8]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak. Key factors are crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [8]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are weakening along with crude oil. Key factors are crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [8]. - Methanol: There is a short - term divergence between inland and port markets, and methanol is moving in a volatile manner. Key factors include macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Urea: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Key factors are export policy trends and elimination of production capacity. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Ethylene Glycol: Typhoons have affected the port arrival rhythm, and inventory build - up is expected in August. Key factors are the inventory build - up inflection point at ports and device recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - PX: Market sentiment cools, and prices are returning to fundamental - based pricing. Key factors are the maintenance rhythm of downstream PTA and seasonal changes in gasoline profits. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - PTA: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down briefly, and processing fees are still under pressure. Key factors are the planned production cuts of mainstream devices and the intensity of polyester joint production cuts. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Short - Fiber: Downstream demand improvement is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory build - up. Key factors are the purchasing rhythm and operating conditions of downstream yarn mills. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Bottle Chips: The production cut scale in August continues to exceed 20%, strengthening the support for processing fees. Key factor is the future operating conditions of bottle chips. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Propylene: Weak propane suppresses the market, and it is moving in a short - term volatile manner. Key factors are oil prices and the domestic macro - situation. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - PP: The anti - cut - throat - competition sentiment has changed, and PP is falling in a volatile manner. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Plastic: Macro - support is weakening, and plastic is falling in a volatile manner. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Styrene: Commodity sentiment is improving, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. Key factors are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - PVC: It has returned to weak - reality - based pricing, and the futures price is falling in a volatile manner. Key factors are expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Caustic Soda: Spot pressure is emerging, and caustic soda is trending weakly. Key factors are market sentiment, operating rates, and demand. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Oils and Fats: Market sentiment is warming up, and palm oil is leading the rise in oils and fats. Key factors are US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend [8]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Protein Meal: The market continues the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. Key factors are US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Corn/Starch: Market sentiment remains weak. Key factors are less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Live Pigs: Supply exceeds demand, and prices remain low. Key factors are farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Rubber: Rubber prices are stabilizing along with commodities. Key factors are production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Synthetic Rubber: The driving factors are unclear, and the futures price is showing amplitude - based volatility. Key factor is significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Paper Pulp: It mainly follows the macro - situation, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. Key factors are macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - based quotations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Cotton: Cotton prices and spreads are rebounding. Key factors are demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Sugar: Supply pressure is increasing marginally, and sugar prices are under pressure. Key factor is imports. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Logs: Bullish sentiment is strong, and log positions are increasing and prices are rising. Key factors are shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend [8].