沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减，国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250806

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, the traditional domestic consumption off - season has suppressed downstream demand, and the inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad fluctuates, suggesting that the Shanghai copper price may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On August 5, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,580, up 250 from the previous day; the trading volume was 42,792 lots, a decrease of 19,597 lots; the open interest was 159,866 lots, a decrease of 3,692 lots; the inventory was 18,767 tons, a decrease of 1,581 tons. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 78,615, up 195 [2]. - London Copper: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on August 5, 2025, was 9,634.5, down 74 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 153,850; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 67.32, down 14.59; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 142.61, down 3.38 [2]. - COMEX Copper: On August 5, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.3795, down 0.06; the total inventory weight was 262,190, an increase of 2,509 [2]. News and Information - Company News: Zangge Mining's Julong Copper Mine Phase II project is expected to be completed and put into production by the end of 2025, with an annual copper output of about 300,000 - 350,000 tons. Codelco, the world's largest copper miner, has stopped the mining operation of its flagship El Teniente copper mine due to an accident and postponed its quarterly earnings release [2]. - Trade News: Affected by US tariffs on copper semi - finished products, domestic copper processing exports to the US are under pressure. A copper tube enterprise's goods arriving in the US on August 5 were subject to an additional 50% tariff, with a comprehensive tariff of 97% [2]. - Industry News: Japan's Mitsubishi Materials may partially shut down its refinery due to falling copper concentrate processing and smelting fees (TC/RCs), while Chinese smelters maintain record - high production [2]. Industry Operation - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China has increased compared to last week, leading to an increase in the operating rate of China's refined copper (recycled copper rod) production capacity. The raw material and finished - product inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has increased, while that of recycled copper rod enterprises has decreased. The operating rate of China's copper wire and cable production capacity has decreased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory has increased. The operating rate and order volume of China's copper enameled wire have increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days have decreased. The operating rate and production volume of China's copper strip have increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days have decreased. The operating rate of China's copper tube has decreased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days have remained flat. The operating rate of China's brass rod has decreased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days have decreased [2]. - In August, the operating rate of domestic copper processing enterprises may be affected by the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod, copper strip, and brass rod may increase month - on - month, while those of recycled copper rod, copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper foil, and copper tube may decrease [2]. Trading Strategy It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels: Shanghai copper at 74,000 - 76,000 and 80,000 - 81,000; London copper at 9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200; US copper at 4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0 [2].