渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.08.06）-20250806

Core Viewpoints - In July, the issuance guidance rates for all maturities declined, with an overall change of -20 BP to -1 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds slightly decreased month-on-month, with corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and directed tools seeing a decrease, while enterprise bonds and short-term financing bonds increased [2] - The net financing amount of credit bonds increased month-on-month, with medium-term notes seeing a decrease. Other varieties showed an increase, with corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds having positive net financing amounts [2] - In the secondary market, the transaction scale of credit bonds increased month-on-month, while the transaction amounts of enterprise bonds and directed tools decreased. The yield of credit bonds showed a fluctuating trend, with the monthly average lower than June [2] - The credit spread showed a similar trend to yields, initially narrowing, then widening, and finally narrowing again. Most varieties of medium-term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds saw a month-on-month narrowing of credit spreads [2] - From an absolute return perspective, insufficient supply and relatively strong allocation demand continue to support the strengthening of credit bonds. Despite inevitable fluctuations due to various factors, the long-term yield is expected to remain in a downward channel, making it feasible to increase allocations during adjustments [2] Industry Insights - The real estate market is undergoing adjustments, but with the implementation of policies to stabilize the market, it is moving towards stabilization. The recovery in sales will significantly impact bond valuations, and funds with higher risk tolerance may consider early positioning [3] - The focus for allocation remains on historically stable, high-performing central and state-owned enterprises, as well as high-quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. This strategy aims to extend duration and enhance returns while also considering trading opportunities from undervalued real estate enterprise bonds [3] - Urban investment bonds are still a key allocation variety under the backdrop of stabilizing growth and preventing systemic risks, with a low likelihood of defaults. However, attention should be paid to potential valuation fluctuations during the acceleration of urban investment platform clean-up and transformation [3]