股指期货：情绪整体积极股指期权：市场保持温涨观点-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment of stock index futures is positive, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 1% and financial stocks leading the gain, indicating signs of large - scale capital inflow. It is advisable to continue holding IM long positions [1][7]. - The stock index option market maintains a view of moderate growth. It is recommended to continue holding covered options to maintain positive delta and negative gamma exposures and obtain time - value decay benefits [2][7]. - The bond market shows differentiation. Short - term bonds may perform better, and there is a higher odds of steepening the yield curve in the medium term [3][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts are - 8.45, - 1.33, - 37.84, and - 33.08 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 2.95, - 2.14, - 6.70, and - 5.19 points [7]. - The spreads between current - month and next - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 13.0, - 1.6, 66.8, and 72.4 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 0.6, - 1.4, 5.2, and 3.2 points [7]. - The total open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM changes by 1005, 660, - 1806, and - 7110 lots respectively [7]. - The market continues to rise, and there are positive factors for the August market, such as pre - parade risk - preference support, limited impact of the earnings season, and potential benefits from a weaker US dollar [1][7]. Stock Index Options - The trading volume of the option market is 4.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.06% from the previous day. The liquidity continues to decline, but the trading volume of the broader market increases marginally [2][7]. - Most varieties' open - interest PCR continues to rise, and the skewness mainly declines, indicating that the market starts to trade the upward expectation again after a short consolidation [2][7]. - The implied volatility of varieties such as 50ETF, 300ETF, and MO fluctuates at a low level, and that of Shanghai 500ETF rises slightly. The low - level implied - volatility fluctuation may continue [2][7]. Treasury Futures - The trading volume and open interest of T, TF, TS, and TL current - quarter contracts change to varying degrees. The spreads between current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, cross - variety spreads, and basis also change [8]. - The central bank conducts 16.07 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 44.92 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 28.85 billion yuan from the open market [8]. - The long - end of treasury bonds performs better than the short - end, and the yield curve flattens. The loose funding situation is beneficial to the bond market, while the strong equity market and the release of pro - growth policies are negative factors for the bond market [3][8][9]. - Operation suggestions include being cautiously optimistic about trends, paying attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels, appropriately paying attention to basis widening, and having a higher odds of steepening the yield curve in the medium term [9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data to be released this week include the US factory orders month - on - month rate in June, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in July, China's trade balance in July, the UK central bank's benchmark interest rate in August, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 2, and China's M2 money supply annual growth rate in July [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - 16 departments including the National Disease Control Bureau jointly issued the Implementation Plan for the Health Environment Promotion Action of the Healthy China Initiative (2025 - 2030) to promote the construction of a beautiful and healthy China [12]. - Seven departments including the central bank jointly issued the Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - style Industrialization, aiming to promote the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy [12]. - Fed's Daly said that the time for interest - rate cuts is approaching, and two interest - rate cuts this year are still an appropriate adjustment. There may be fewer than two cuts, but more cuts are more likely [12]. - On the afternoon of August 5, the power load of the Chongqing power grid reached 30.28 million kilowatts, a new high this summer, an increase of 6.7% compared to last year's highest load [13]. - The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization (WSTS) announced that the global semiconductor market size from January to June this year reached $346 billion, a year - on - year increase of 18.9% [13].