ISM?制造业PMI不及预期，?价下探回升

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices dropped and then rebounded on Tuesday evening, reaching a high of $3380 per ounce, mainly influenced by the unexpected decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI and Trump's remarks about the Fed and Indian tariffs [1][3]. - With the phased conclusion of trade negotiation results, the negative impact of TACO trading on gold has been phased out. The emotional impact of tariffs will gradually weaken and become a slow - variable later. Attention should be paid to the negative verification of the fundamentals after large - scale implementation [6]. - With the disappointing non - farm payroll data and the reversal of the US stock market, the short - term trading of the US economic resilience may end. The market will return to the logic of the weakening US fundamentals and the restart of the interest rate cut cycle, and the sentiment in the gold market will turn positive [6]. - At the global central bank annual meeting in late August, Powell's statement is expected to change. The accelerating pace of the Fed's leadership change may bring changes to the expected interest rate path next year and concerns about the Fed's independence, which is expected to increase price elasticity [6]. - The long - term bull market trend of gold remains unchanged. The continued slowdown of the US fundamentals under the tariff path and the restart of the interest rate cut cycle provide medium - term drivers, and the contraction of the US dollar credit builds the foundation for the long - term bull market [6]. - The weekly London gold spot price is expected to be in the range of [3300, 3500], and the weekly London silver spot price is expected to be in the range of [36, 40] [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Key Information - Trump said he would significantly raise tariffs on Indian goods due to India's large - scale purchase of Russian oil. India responded that it would take measures to safeguard its interests and criticized Trump's actions as "unjustified" [2]. - Trump said he would soon announce a short - term replacement for Fed Governor Kugler's resignation and the next Fed Chairman [2]. - The minutes of the Bank of Japan's June meeting showed that some policymakers believed there was room for a rate hike once trade frictions caused by US tariffs eased [2]. - On August 5, US economic data showed that the July ISM non - manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5; the final value of the S&P Global Services PMI was 55.7, slightly higher than the expected 55.2. The trade deficit in June narrowed to $60.2 billion, the smallest since September 2023 [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices were affected by the unexpected decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI, Trump's remarks about the Fed (including soon announcing a new Fed Chairman, criticizing Powell for "cutting interest rates too late") and Indian tariffs (raising tariffs on Indian goods in 24 hours, and planning new tariff measures on drugs and chips in the next week with drug tariffs possibly reaching up to 250% in stages) [1][3]. - The three factors of economic fundamentals, Fed independence, and economic and trade prospects resonated, causing gold to rebound quickly from $3350 to above $3380 [6].