光大期货金融期货日报-20250806

Group 1: Research Views - The implementation of the Childcare Subsidy System nationwide is expected to be an important path to stabilize and boost China's inflation. The recent stock market rally is driven by long - term, medium - term, and short - term factors. It's advisable to wait for clearer policies and market trends before adjusting positions. The outlook for the stock index is "volatile", and for treasury bonds is "bullish" [1] - On August 6, 2025, treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. The central bank conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate, resulting in a net withdrawal of 28.85 billion yuan. Short - term treasury bonds are expected to run strongly [1][2] Group 2: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, IH rose 20.6 points (0.74%), IF rose 29.2 points (0.72%), IC rose 29.6 points (0.48%), and IM rose 39.4 points (0.59%) [3] Stock Indexes - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 21.3 points (0.77%), the CSI 300 rose 32.7 points (0.80%), the CSI 500 rose 41.5 points (0.66%), and the CSI 1000 rose 47.8 points (0.71%) [3] Treasury Bond Futures - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, TS remained unchanged (0.00%), TF rose 0.04 points (0.04%), T rose 0.07 points (0.06%), and TL rose 0.13 points (0.11%) [3] Group 3: Market News - The Passenger Car Association slightly raised its annual forecast for 2025. It predicts 24.35 million passenger car retail sales, a 6% increase, and 5.46 million passenger car exports, a 14% increase [4] Group 4: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - Charts show the historical price trends of IH, IF, IM, IC, and their corresponding basis trends [6][7][9] Treasury Bond Futures - Charts display the historical price trends of treasury bond futures, spot bond yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][14][16] Exchange Rates - Charts present the historical trends of the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, euro - RMB exchange rate, forward exchange rates, US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [19][20][23]