碳酸锂期货月差策略推荐

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term oversupply logic of lithium carbonate remains unchanged due to new projects in recent years, but short - term sentiment is highly volatile, with significant supply uncertainties and marginal improvements in supply - demand dynamics. LC prices are expected to remain in a wide - ranging consolidation pattern. It is advisable to focus on the LC2509 - LC2511 long spread and the LC2511 - LC2601 short spread [1][5][59][63]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Price Review and Four Changes 1.1 Price Review - Lithium prices this year have gone through three phases: a rebound before the Spring Festival due to bullish speculation and strong demand; a decline from February to May under the influence of factors like higher - than - expected supply, lowered demand forecasts, etc.; and a rebound since early June due to marginal improvements in fundamentals [12][13]. 1.2 Four Changes - Macro Improvement: Since 2025, as lithium prices entered the bottom range, macro factors have become more prominent. From April 2025, due to reciprocal tariffs, the influence of macro sentiment on lithium carbonate prices grew significantly, with R² jumping from near zero on April 7 to 0.8 by June and then easing to around 0.6. Since June, with eased US - China relations and stronger - than - expected demand resilience in some commodities, the market turned bullish and short positions in lithium carbonate were withdrawn [18][19][20]. - Expected Temporary Supply Contraction: The decline in lithium carbonate prices may lead to a reduction in China's lithium imports. From May to June, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China dropped sharply by 46% and 41% year - on - year respectively. Lithium ore imports also decreased from June, with a 18.1% year - on - year decline in June [24][25]. - Off - Season Demand Slightly Exceeds Expectations: Historically, lithium carbonate demand weakens in June and July. However, in 2025, cathode production in June and July is expected to increase month - on - month by 3.7% and 2.5% respectively, showing demand resilience [32][33]. - Rapid Warehouse Receipt Reduction: Since late March, futures' decline led to spot premiums. Due to lower prices this year, companies hedged less, and futures discounts weakened the willingness to deliver but increased the demand for warehouse receipt. After a concentrated cancellation in April, warehouse receipt started declining from late May, and by the end of June, it dropped to 22,000 tons. Low warehouse receipt levels may support futures prices [35][36][38]. 2. Key Influencing Factors - Mine Issues: Since mid - July, concerns over mine violations and license renewals have drawn market attention. Officially announced suspensions by Zangge Mining and Jiangte Motor have a limited output impact. However, issues like unqualified mining licenses and expiring permits in some mines may constraint about 25,000 tons/month and 14,000 tons/month of lithium supply respectively. If mines shut down, Q3 will see a supply gap and price rebound; if not, prices will return to fundamentals [40][41][43]. - Sentiment Against "Involution - style" Competition: Since early July, this sentiment has spread across commodities. The impact on lithium carbonate smelting is relatively limited, but on the mining side, it may raise standards and costs. In the short term, it may cause companies to cut lithium carbonate purchases; in the long run, it may improve industry margins and lead to slight price increases [45][46][47]. - Warehouse Receipt Issue: July is a month of concentrated cancellations, with low and declining warehouse receipt levels. As prices rise, more registrations are expected in August. However, with high open interest in the September contract, limited warehouse receipt increases in August may pose risks [49][55]. 3. Supply - Demand Balance - In July - August, demand slightly exceeded expectations while imports fell short, likely maintaining a tight supply - demand equilibrium. If the peak season continues into September, a deficit of nearly 2,000 tons may emerge. Minor disruptions at major mines in August could cause a significant deficit, accelerating inventory drawdowns and price increases [56][57]. 4. Strategy Recommendation - It is advisable to focus on the LC2509 - LC2511 long spread (buy LC2509/sell LC2511) and the LC2511 - LC2601 short spread (sell LC2511/buy LC2601). The September - November spread could widen if mine production cuts materialize, presenting a long - spread opportunity; otherwise, the spread volatility will narrow. The November - January period is the consumption low season, and the LC2511 - LC2601 short spread is worth monitoring as it is less sensitive to mine production cuts, and the spread may return to below - 1,000 CNY/ton in Q4 [1][5][63].