Southwest Securities·2025-08-06 04:32Core Insights - Future consumer spending in China is expected to shift towards self-indulgent and service-oriented consumption, mirroring trends seen in Japan as its labor population peaked and consumption growth slowed [3][21][23] - The domestic tourism market is projected to maintain high growth rates, with Q1 2025 showing a 26.4% increase in travel volume and an 18.6% increase in tourism revenue year-on-year [3][28][34] - The human resources sector is supported by national policies and AI advancements, indicating a long-term investment opportunity as the flexible employment market is still in its early stages [3][41][53] - The sports industry is expected to accelerate in growth, with a target of reaching a market size of 5 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by clear policy direction [3][60][62] Consumer Market - The shift towards self-indulgent consumption is evident, with service consumption expected to rise significantly, reaching approximately 46% of total consumption by 2024 [21][23][25] - The characteristics of Japan's "third consumption society" are becoming apparent in China, as consumer behavior increasingly reflects personal preferences and emotional satisfaction [21][23][24] Tourism Industry - The tourism sector is showing resilience, with strong consumer willingness to travel, ranking first in spending intentions among residents [3][28][35] - Despite the growth, the tourism industry is still recovering from the pandemic, with domestic tourism revenue as a percentage of GDP expected to reach only 4.3% in 2024, compared to 5.7% in 2019 [31][33] Human Resources Service Industry - The human resources sector is experiencing a structural shift, with the proportion of labor in the tertiary sector increasing from 42.3% in 2015 to 48.8% in 2024, indicating a growing demand for HR services [3][41][40] - The flexible employment market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.4% expected from 2018 to 2024 [53][51] Sports Industry - The sports industry is on track to reach a market size of 5 trillion yuan by 2025, with the current market size at 3.7 trillion yuan, indicating substantial growth potential [3][60][62] - The government's "National Fitness Plan" aims to enhance outdoor sports participation and infrastructure, further driving industry growth [60][62] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Huangshan Tourism (600054.SH) and Lisheng Sports (002858.SZ) due to their strong market positions and growth potential in the current economic climate [3][67][70]