全球货币转向跟踪第8期：美欧日央行暂时进入观望期

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy Overview - The major central banks of the US, Eurozone, and Japan have maintained their interest rates unchanged as of July 2025, with the Federal Reserve holding rates at 4.25%-4.5%[2] - In July 2025, 4 out of 26 tracked economies reduced interest rates, down from 6 in June 2025[2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) paused its rate cuts after seven consecutive reductions, while the Bank of Japan has also kept its policy rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time[2] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The Federal Reserve's expectation for rate cuts has cooled, with the anticipated number of cuts for the year dropping from nearly 3 in early July to less than 2 by the end of July[3] - The probability of a rate cut in September for the Federal Reserve decreased from 90% to about 40% but rebounded to nearly 90% in early August due to significant downward revisions in US non-farm payroll data[3] - The ECB's rate cut expectations fell from a forecast of one more cut in July to no cuts by the end of July, with September cut probability dropping from 42% to approximately 10%[3] Group 3: China's Interest Rate Position - China's nominal interest rate increased slightly, leading to a rise in real interest rates from 3% in June to 3.1% in July 2025, placing it at the 69th percentile historically since 2014[3] - China's real interest rate ranking among 13 major economies has dropped to 10th place in 2025, down from 11th in 2024[3] Group 4: US Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet and Liquidity - As of July 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve's reserves have shrunk by $57.7 billion compared to pre-tightening levels, with a monthly reduction of $47.6 billion in July[4] - The use of the discount window has increased, indicating potential liquidity stress among some smaller banks[4] - The SOFR-EFFR spread has frequently turned positive since 2025, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions for non-bank institutions[5] Group 5: Global Financial Market Liquidity - The bid-ask spread for US 10Y Treasuries has increased, indicating tighter supply-demand conditions, with the spread at the 66th percentile historically since 2001[6] - Credit spreads for high-yield bonds in the US have slightly widened since July, while spreads in Japan, Europe, and Asia remain low[6]