新能源及有色金属日报：政策及情绪驱动仍占主导，多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡-20250806

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Neutral [2] - Polysilicon: Short - term interval operation [6] 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon market is mainly affected by supply and demand changes and potential industry measures. The polysilicon market is mainly driven by policies, with large short - term fluctuations and suitable for mid - to long - term bottom - up long positions [2][6] 3. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - Futures: On August 5, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and rose. The main contract 2509 opened at 8345 yuan/ton and closed at 8490 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 181,168 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,806 lots, an increase of 494 lots from the previous day [1] - Spot: The spot price of industrial silicon declined. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9100 - 9400 (-200) yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon was 9500 - 9900 (-200) yuan/ton [1] - Consumption: The price of silicone DMC was stable at 12100 - 12700 yuan/ton. The supply of silicone gradually recovered, but the demand was limited due to sufficient raw material inventory of downstream enterprises [1] Polysilicon - Futures: On August 5, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 48615 yuan/ton and closing at 50330 yuan/ton, up 3.88% from the previous day. The position of the main contract reached 127,587 lots, and the trading volume was 433,130 lots [3] - Spot: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg [3] - Inventory and Production: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 5.76% month - on - month to 22.90, while silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.57% month - on - month to 18.15GW. Polysilicon weekly production increased by 3.92% to 26,500 tons, and silicon wafer production decreased by 1.79% to 11.00GW [3] Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component - Silicon Wafer: The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers remained unchanged. The production plan of silicon wafer enterprises was inconsistent, and the production of leading professional silicon wafer enterprises might increase [5] - Battery: The prices of various types of battery cells remained stable. The global production schedule of Chinese enterprises in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month to 57 - 58GW [5] - Component: The mainstream transaction prices of various types of components remained unchanged [5] 4. Strategy Industrial Silicon - The industrial fundamentals have little change. The supply has a certain increase, the consumption increases month - on - month in August, and the inventory decreases slightly, but the overall inventory pressure is still large. It is expected that the short - term disk will fluctuate widely [2] Polysilicon - The polysilicon disk is mainly affected by policies. In the short term, it is recommended to operate within the interval. In the mid - to long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices [6]