8月流动性月报：超储结构偏短，不排除资金波动-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, the capital market experienced increased volatility but maintained a stable central level. The central bank actively adjusted its open - market operations to maintain market stability. The implementation effect of monetary policy will continue to emerge, and the central bank may maintain a coordinated policy stance during the peak issuance of government bonds. - In August, the overall capital gap pressure is expected to be seasonally large, around 1.8 trillion yuan. However, the capital central level is likely to remain around 1.5%, with a limited risk of significant tightening. The central bank may maintain a coordinated policy stance and there is a relatively higher probability of restarting bond - buying from August to September [4][5][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 7 - Month Capital and Liquidity Review 3.1.1 Capital Review - In July 2025, the overnight capital fluctuation range increased compared to the end of the previous quarter. The overnight capital fluctuated between 1.3 - 1.4% at the beginning of the month and rose to around 1.5% in the middle. The 7D capital price was basically around 1.5% from the beginning to the middle of the month and rose to around 1.6% at the end. The spread between 7D and overnight capital inverted for one day at the end of the month [10]. - The capital operation was affected by fiscal expenditures, reverse - repurchase operations, and MLF. The capital center decreased overall, with DR001 centered around 1.4% and DR007 fluctuating around 1.5% [11]. - The capital stratification pressure increased briefly in July, with spreads at a seasonal low. The capital volatility of overnight increased, and the 7D capital volatility changed seasonally. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased slightly compared to June [16][22][23]. 3.1.2 Liquidity Review - In terms of liquidity volume, the base currency in July may have decreased by 6019 billion yuan. The end - of - month excess reserves may have decreased by 5161 billion yuan, with an excess reserve ratio of about 1.55%. The narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse - repurchase is about 0.7%, still at a low level [31]. - In open - market operations, the central bank actively increased reverse - repurchase investments in July, with a net investment of 1880 billion yuan. MLF invested 4000 billion yuan and matured 3000 billion yuan. The net investment of outright reverse - repurchase was 2000 billion yuan, and a 1000 - billion - yuan treasury deposit operation was carried out [33][37][40]. 3.2 7 - Month Monetary Policy Tracking - In the middle of July, the central bank leader stated that the effect of the implemented monetary policy would continue to emerge, and it was reasonable for small and medium - sized banks to increase bond holdings. The regulatory attitude was more moderate than expected. - In the middle and late July, the central bank solicited opinions on "canceling the freezing of collateral for bond repurchase", which may improve collateral utilization efficiency in the long run. - At the end of July, the Political Bureau meeting emphasized implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and fully releasing policy effects. The probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, and the central bank may maintain a coordinated policy stance during the peak issuance of government bonds [3][48][52]. 3.3 8 - Month Gap Prediction 3.3.1 Rigid Gap - In August, the growth of general deposits may freeze about 902 billion yuan in reserves. The MLF maturity is 3000 billion yuan, and the outright reverse - repurchase maturity is 0.9 trillion yuan (4000 billion yuan for 3M and 5000 billion yuan for 6M) [4][57]. 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks - Cash withdrawals and non - financial institution deposits may slightly freeze excess reserves. Cash withdrawals may consume about 577 billion yuan in excess reserves, and non - financial institution deposits may consume about 723 billion yuan [61]. 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors - The government bond issuance in August is expected to be around 1.5 trillion yuan. Considering factors such as payment reflux, taxation, and fiscal expenditures, government deposits may freeze about 2000 billion yuan in liquidity [64]. 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment - The overall capital gap in August is estimated to be around 1.8 trillion yuan, with a seasonally large pressure. However, the capital central level is likely to remain around 1.5%, with a limited risk of significant tightening. The central bank may continue the idea of over - repurchase and pay attention to the bank's liability situation and the possibility of the central bank restarting bond - buying from August to September [4][5][69].