化工日报：PX供应增加，PTA现货加工费低位-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply of PX is expected to increase, with the balance sheet shifting from destocking to balance, but it remains in a low - inventory state. The PTA spot processing fee is at a low level, and it is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August. The demand side has not significantly improved, and the improvement still awaits the arrival of seasonal peak - season orders [1][2]. - For trading strategies, a cautious and bearish stance is taken on PX/PTA/PF/PR. There are suggestions for cross - variety and cross - period trading, such as narrowing the PTA processing fee at high prices, increasing the PR processing fee at low prices, and conducting reverse spreads for PTA2509 - 2601 and PF2509 - 2511 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - TA main - contract spot basis is - 19 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 4 yuan/ton), PTA spot processing fee is 111 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 34 yuan/ton), and the main - contract on - paper processing fee is 370 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 2 yuan/ton) [2]. - The PXN of PX is 253 dollars/ton (a month - on - month change of + 11.38 dollars/ton) [1]. 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - PX processing fee PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR; PTA spot processing fee; South Korea's xylene isomerization profit; South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit are all analyzed in the report [6][7]. 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Analyzed are the toluene US - Asia spread: FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [7]. 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Recent commissioning of multiple reforming units and restart of some PX units have led to a gradual recovery of supply. China's PX load is expected to recover successively, and the supply of PX is expected to increase [1]. - Short - term PTA maintenance has improved supply - demand, but mainstream suppliers' active sales have suppressed prices [2]. 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August, and the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts has led to abundant liquid supply [2]. - The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to balance, but it remains in a low - inventory state [1]. 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Polyester operating rate is 88.1% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%). In late July, terminal weaving concentrated on replenishing raw materials, significantly reducing filament inventory pressure. Short - term polyester load remains firm [2]. - Short - fiber factories have different pressures in different product types, with cotton - type pressure being acceptable, while hollow and low - melting - point types face greater pressure and have slightly reduced production [2]. - For bottle chips, the maintenance plans of several large manufacturers have been gradually implemented, and the load is expected to remain stable in the short term [2][3]. 7. PF Detailed Data - PF spot production profit is 122 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton). PF demand - side orders are weak, inventory remains high, and the willingness to hold goods is low under the drag of downstream production cuts. The near - month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts [3]. 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - PR bottle - chip spot processing fee is 443 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 10 yuan/ton). After the maintenance plans of several large manufacturers are completed, there are no restart plans in August. The bottle - chip load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the spot processing fee is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for fluctuations after repair [3].