农产品日报：供需改善有限，纸浆延续弱势-20250806

Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices face constraints in the short - term and new pressure in the fourth quarter [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term [5][6] - The pulp market has supply pressure and limited demand improvement. Short - term pulp prices may stay at the bottom [8] Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,655 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,081 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The national average price was 15,169 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton [1] - As of August 3, the budding rate of US cotton was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 points slower than the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 5%, 2 points slower than last year and 1 point slower than the five - year average. The good - quality rate was 55%, 10 points higher than last year and 8 points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International cotton prices lack obvious drivers and are expected to fluctuate with macro - market sentiment. Domestic cotton prices face constraints due to slow inventory drawdown, low import in the third quarter, and weak terminal demand. In the fourth quarter, new cotton listing will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy and treat Zhengzhou cotton as under pressure and in a volatile pattern in the short - term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,697 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Brazil's 2025 sugarcane planting area is expected to be 9.1685 million hectares, down 0.6% from last month's estimate and 0.2% from 2024. The production is estimated to be 693 million tons, down 0.1% from last month's estimate and 1.9% from 2024 [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar is in a weak - volatile pattern due to Brazil's accelerated crushing and good supply prospects. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in a range in the short - term and may have a tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but face downward pressure in the long - term [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, expect short - term range - bound fluctuations and a long - term bearish trend [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,160 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,810 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,200 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market continued to decline, with prices of some grades in different regions falling [7] Market Analysis - The pulp market has supply pressure due to high port inventory and expected production. Demand is weak both globally and domestically, with limited improvement expected in the second half of the year [8] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, expect short - term pulp prices to stay at the bottom [8]