纯苯苯乙烯日报：EB跨期反弹，关注下游旺季前备货持续性-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - BZ port inventory has slightly decreased without further accumulation. Short - term downstream demand for BZ is okay, but the开工 rates of CPL and styrene have declined, and there is still some finished - product inventory pressure on the downstream, with the开工 rate of phenol - acetone also dropping. On the supply side, the shipping pressure from South Korea has not further increased, but the new production capacity of Yulong Petrochemical in China will impact the market, and BZ processing fees will continue to consolidate at a low level. For styrene, the port inventory peaked and declined in the first week, the port basis rebounded slightly from the bottom, and the futures 09 - 10 inter - period spread has rebounded. The downstream pick - up volume has increased, indicating the emergence of speculative demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. However, there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS, the production profit is average, and the sustainability of stockpiling is questionable, while the styrene 开工 rate remains high [3] Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 195 yuan/ton (+10), and the spot - M2 spread is - 65 yuan/ton (+0). For the inter - period spread, relevant data is not further elaborated in terms of specific trading strategies in this part [1] - Styrene: The main basis is 18 yuan/ton (+4), and the futures 09 - 10 inter - period spread has rebounded [1][3] II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 165 dollars/ton (+12 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 153 dollars/ton (+13 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 69.7 dollars/ton (+3.0 dollars/ton) [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 238 yuan/ton (+4 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1] III. Inventory and 开工 Rate of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 16.30 tons (- 0.70 tons), and the 开工 rate situation is not specifically mentioned [1] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 159,000 tons (- 5,000 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 66,500 tons (- 1,000 tons), and it is in the inventory reconstruction stage. The 开工 rate is 78.9% (+0.1%) [1] IV. 开工 and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 223 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton), and the 开工 rate is 54.25% (- 0.95%) [2] - PS: The production profit is - 27 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton), and the 开工 rate is 53.30% (+1.70%) [2] - ABS: The production profit is 139 yuan/ton (- 14 yuan/ton), and the 开工 rate is 65.90% (- 0.92%). The downstream 开工 is at a seasonal low [2] V. 开工 and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1535 yuan/ton (+60), and the 开工 rate is 90.21% (- 0.69%) [1] - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 647 yuan/ton (- 87), and the 开工 rate is 73.00% (- 5.00%) [1] - Aniline: The production profit is - 160 yuan/ton (- 47), and the 开工 rate is 73.94% (+0.28%) [1] - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1373 yuan/ton (- 41), and the 开工 rate is 64.80% (+0.00%) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for pure benzene and styrene [4] - Basis and inter - period: For the near - month BZ paper - cargo - distal BZ2603 spread, conduct reverse arbitrage when it is high; for the BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period spread, conduct reverse arbitrage when it is high; for the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread, conduct reverse arbitrage when it is high [4] - Cross - variety: Shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [4]