黑色建材日报：市场预期反复，钢价小幅反弹-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific commodities, the strategies suggest a "sideways" outlook for steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, while there is no strategy for thermal coal [2][4][6][7] 2. Core Views - Steel: Market expectations are fluctuating, leading to a slight rebound in steel prices. The current supply - demand fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate with policy expectations [1] - Iron Ore: Market sentiment is fluctuating, causing a slight increase in iron ore prices. The short - term fundamentals are good, but the long - term supply - demand remains relatively loose [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Supply expectation disturbances have led to a rise in coking coal and coke futures. The demand is strongly supported, and there is an expectation of a sixth round of coke price increases [6] - Thermal Coal: Rainfall has affected the supply in production areas, causing the pit - mouth coal price to run strongly. In the short term, the price is expected to be slightly stronger, while the long - term supply remains loose [7] 3. Summaries by Commodity Steel - Market Analysis: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3233 yuan/ton and 3457 yuan/ton respectively. The spot trading volume is average, with 11.01 tons of building materials traded nationwide [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Building materials are in the off - season, while plates are supported by overseas orders. Supply is affected by production - restriction expectations and cost - side policies, leading to a slight increase in prices [1] - Strategy: Sideways for single - sided trading, and no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The futures price of iron ore rose by 1.20% to 798.5 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tangshan ports increased slightly, with a 10.42% increase in the national main port trading volume and a 22.75% increase in forward - contract trading volume [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply has strong support, and the global shipment shows a seasonal decline. The demand is guaranteed by high pig - iron production and no large - scale maintenance plans for steel mills in the short term [3] - Strategy: Sideways for single - sided trading, and no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The futures prices of coking coal and coke rose significantly. Some coal mines stopped production for rectification, and the fifth round of coke price increases was fully implemented, with a cumulative increase of 250 - 275 yuan/ton [5][6] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply expectations are unstable. The demand is supported by the high operating rate and pig - iron production of steel mills, and there is an expectation of a sixth round of coke price increases [6] - Strategy: Sideways for single - sided trading of both coking coal and coke, and no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, rainfall restricted coal production, and the terminal replenishment demand was strong, driving up the coal price. In ports, the supply tightened, inventory decreased, and prices rose. The import price increased, but the trading activity was low [7] - Supply - Demand and Logic: At the beginning of the month, some coal mines resumed normal production, and the supply strongly supported the market. With continuous high temperatures, the demand is expected to strengthen, and the price will run slightly stronger in the short term while the long - term supply remains loose [7] - Strategy: No strategy provided [7]