化工日报：马油装置意外停车，关注成本焦煤变动-20250806

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, for the trading strategy of ethylene glycol, the unilateral strategy is rated as neutral [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market Analysis: The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,399 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.23%) from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,460 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.11%). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 79 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. On Tuesday afternoon, driven by the temporary shutdown of the Malaysian oil plant and the rebound of coking coal prices, the ethylene glycol futures price rose [1]. - Production Profit: The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$48/ton, up $1/ton; the production profit of coal - made syngas - based EG was 2 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 516,000 tons, down 5,000 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 427,000 tons, down 48,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 103,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the port inventory decreased slightly. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 138,000 tons, and it is expected that the main ports will accumulate inventory [1]. - Supply - Demand Logic: On the supply side, the domestic synthetic gas - based load of ethylene glycol has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production plants are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the Saudi sharq series of plants have restarted, and the import is expected to increase. On the demand side, terminal replenishment in July significantly relieved the inventory pressure of filaments. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term. In early August, there will be a concentrated arrival of foreign vessels, and the inventory will slightly accumulate. It is expected that the port inventory will remain low and slightly increase in August [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,399 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.23%) from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,460 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.11%). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 79 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$48/ton, up $1/ton; the production profit of coal - made syngas - based EG was 2 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The domestic synthetic gas - based load of ethylene glycol has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions [1][2]. International Spread - The report does not provide specific data on international spreads, but only mentions a chart of the international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR) [19]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - In July, terminal replenishment significantly relieved the inventory pressure of filaments. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 516,000 tons, down 5,000 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 427,000 tons, down 48,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 103,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the port inventory decreased slightly. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 138,000 tons, and it is expected that the main ports will accumulate inventory. In early August, there will be a concentrated arrival of foreign vessels, and the inventory will slightly accumulate. It is expected that the port inventory will remain low and slightly increase in August [1][2]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. With the rebound of coking coal prices, attention should be paid to cost changes. - Inter - period: No specific strategy is proposed. - Inter - commodity: No specific strategy is proposed [3].