燃料油日报：埃及燃料油采购出现下滑迹象-20250806

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the crude oil price has weakened, driving down the unilateral prices of FU and LU. The expectation of a looser medium-term balance sheet potentially suppresses the energy sector [2]. - In the high-sulfur fuel oil market, the market structure has been weak recently, and the crack spread has significantly declined from its high. Currently, the spot supply is relatively abundant, while the demand lacks growth momentum. Egypt, which had strong demand previously, has shown signs of slower procurement. In July, Egypt's high-sulfur fuel oil arrivals were 610,000 tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from June, and the estimated imports in August are only 260,000 tons. After increasing LNG imports, the raw material gap in power plants has been partially filled, leading to a marginal decline in the substitution demand for fuel oil. Looking forward, the structural positive factors for high-sulfur fuel oil have not completely disappeared. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant rebound in refinery demand, opportunities for the market structure to strengthen again can be observed [2]. - In the low-sulfur fuel oil market, the current market pressure is limited. However, as the tight situation of overseas diesel eases, the support for the low-sulfur fuel oil market may weaken, and the supply of components is expected to increase. In the medium term, due to the relatively abundant remaining capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and the market outlook remains pessimistic [2]. 3. Strategy Summary - High-sulfur: Take appropriate profit on the previous short position of FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) [3] - Low-sulfur: No specific strategy mentioned [3] - Cross-variety: Take appropriate profit on the previous short position of FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) [3] - Cross-period: Gradually take profit on the previous FU reverse arbitrage position [3] - Spot-futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3] 4. Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.94% at 2,842 yuan/ton in the daytime session, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.78% at 3,560 yuan/ton [1]