Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [5][6] Core Viewpoints - This week, Thai raw materials stabilized with a slight rebound, and domestic raw material prices remained strong, leading to a recovery in the cost - side support for rubber. However, as rainfall decreases in major production areas at home and abroad, raw material supply will increase again. With the peak - season supply, raw material prices are expected to decline later. The supply pressure of full - latex corresponding to RU is currently not significant due to the higher production profit of concentrated latex. But as the production profit of domestic concentrated latex continues to improve and Thai raw material supply increases, domestic latex imports are expected to rise, which is also beneficial for the recovery of full - latex. The expected arrival volume in August is still low, and the inventory accumulation at ports will be limited. However, the continuous entry of alternative indicators in Yunnan recently has supplemented the dark - colored rubber, and it is expected that the dark - colored rubber will continue to accumulate inventory. Without obvious purchasing intentions from downstream factories, it is difficult for natural rubber prices to rise. For BR, the supply may decrease due to the expected short - term maintenance of some devices and the restart of others. Some tire factories have maintenance plans, and the finished - product inventory of tire factories has slightly decreased, but factory orders have not improved. The supply - demand situation remains weak, and the downward space of BR mainly follows upstream butadiene. Recently, domestic butadiene devices have restarted, supply may increase, demand has no bright spots, and butadiene continues to be weak [5][6] Market News and Data Futures and Spot Prices - On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 14,545 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,300 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,320 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton; the price of Thai grade 20 standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,770 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian grade 20 standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,715 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Import and Production Data - In June 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical - classified, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47%. The ANRPC's June 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in June would decrease by 1.5% to 119,100 tons, a 14.5% increase from the previous month; consumption would increase by 0.7% to 127,100 tons, a 0.1% increase from the previous month. In the first half of the year, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 1.1% to 607,600 tons, while the cumulative consumption increased by 1% to 771,500 tons. QinRex data showed that in the first half of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 138,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Among them, the export of standard rubber was 80,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12%; the export of smoked sheets was 19,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%; the export of latex was 37,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. Thailand's exports of natural rubber to China in the first half of the year totaled 55,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China was 35,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11%; the export of smoked sheets to China was 5,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 307%; the export of latex to China was 14,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 77% [2] Vehicle and Tire Market Data - In June this year, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of this year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%. On July 28, the European Tyre and Rubber Manufacturers Association (ETRMA) released market data showing that in the second quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased by 3.5% year - on - year to 57.044 million pieces [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spread - On August 5, 2025, the RU basis was - 45 yuan/ton (- 30), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 225 yuan/ton (- 40), the import profit of smoked sheets was - 4,366 yuan/ton (+ 0.74), the NR basis was 332 yuan/ton (- 2); the price of full - latex was 14,500 yuan/ton (+ 150), the price of mixed rubber was 14,320 yuan/ton (+ 220), the price of 3L spot was 14,650 yuan/ton (+ 150); the STR20 was quoted at 1,770 US dollars/ton (+ 20), the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 150 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,420 yuan/ton (+ 220) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheets was 59.80 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.83), the price of Thai rubber latex was 54.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0), the price of Thai cup lump was 47.80 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.30), and the spread between Thai rubber latex and cup lump was 6.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.30) [4] Operating Rate - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.26% (- 2.97%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.98% (- 0.08%) [4] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,702 tons (+ 4,602), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 631,770 tons (- 8,614), the RU futures inventory was 177,630 tons (- 4,390), and the NR futures inventory was 39,716 tons (+ 2,318) [4][5] Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber (BR) Spot and Spread - On August 5, 2025, the BR basis was - 65 yuan/ton (+ 30), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,200 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton (+ 150), the price of private - owned cis - polybutadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,350 yuan/ton (+ 100), and the import profit of cis - polybutadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,250 yuan/ton (+ 272) [5] Operating Rate - The operating rate of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber was 72.46% (+ 4.73%) [5] Inventory - The inventory of BR traders was 7,520 tons (+ 50), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 23,800 tons (- 1,050) [5]
化工日报：原料价格回升，橡胶成本支撑力渐强-20250806
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-06 05:17