有色金属日报：市场非标货源增多令升水承压，铜价维持震荡格局-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On Hold [7] - Options: Short Put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - The supply constraint logic still exists, providing strong support for copper prices. However, the global visible copper inventory has increased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious. There is no obvious marginal improvement in demand. The uncertainty of the global macro - economy makes the market worried about whether the demand can be maintained in the second half of the year. In the short term, the weakening of macro - level catalysts makes it difficult to significantly improve the overall copper demand expectation. In the future, it is still recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper varieties, with a buying range of 77,000 yuan/ton to 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 5, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,460 yuan/ton and closed at 78,580 yuan/ton, up 0.32% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,170 yuan/ton and closed at 78,070 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The spot offer was at a premium of 80 - 180 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract, with an average of 130 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading range was 78,530 - 78,700 yuan/ton. The spot premium dropped significantly due to the replenishment of imported goods and the weakening of downstream purchasing willingness. It is expected that the spot premium may continue to adjust weakly [2]. Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped from 50.8 to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5. The US trade deficit in June shrank by 16% to $60.2 billion. Trump said he would announce drug and chip tariffs in the next week, with a maximum drug tariff of 250%, and would significantly increase tariffs on India in 24 hours. A 35% tariff would be imposed if the EU fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US [3]. - Mine End: McEwen Mining expects to complete the feasibility study of its Los Azules copper mine in Argentina in two months, aiming to obtain $600 million in financing next year. The mine is expected to start construction in 2027 and be put into production by the end of 2029 or early 2030, with an annual production of 180,000 - 200,000 tons of copper [4]. - Smelting and Import: Copper is entering a critical decade. Although the importance of copper is increasing, the copper supply chain still faces challenges. The LME inventory decline has triggered regulatory intervention, and mine disruptions have also affected the market. In 2025, the mine supply is expected to increase slightly by about 1.2% to 23.2 million tons [4]. - Consumption: Copper consumption is expected to increase by about 2.6%. The rise of resource nationalism poses risks to new supplies, and about 6 million tons of new copper production capacity will be needed by 2035 to meet demand [5]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,175 tons to 153,850 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1,581 tons to 18,767 tons. On August 4, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.359 million tons, an increase of 166,000 tons from the previous week [5]. Strategy - Copper: It is recommended to use buy - on - dips hedging, with a buying range of 77,000 yuan/ton to 77,500 yuan/ton [7]. - Arbitrage: On hold [7]. - Options: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7].