新能源及有色金属日报：补库后的现货市场重回冷清现状-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - After the previous downstream restocking ended, zinc price rebounds led to a cold spot market with an expanding spot discount. Supply pressure is increasing, while consumption, though showing some resilience, cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, leading to a trend of inventory accumulation and putting pressure on zinc prices. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$10.87/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,300 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of 35 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton. [1] - Futures: On August 5, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,330 yuan/ton, closed at 22,380 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 85,449 lots, and the open interest was 98,472 lots. The highest price was 22,395 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,250 yuan/ton. [2] - Inventory: As of August 5, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 107,300 tons, a change of 4,100 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 92,275 tons, a change of -4,725 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - Spot Market: After downstream restocking, zinc price rebounds made spot transactions cold and spot discounts expand. [4] - Supply: In July, China's zinc ingot production was 602,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23%. The expected production in August is 620,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25%, and supply pressure continues to increase. [4] - Cost: There is no interference in overseas mines, and the domestic concentrate treatment charge (TC) has increased by 100 yuan/ton, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. [4] - Consumption: Downstream operating rates show relative resilience, but overall consumption cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, resulting in a trend of inventory accumulation, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]