有色商品日报（2025年8月6日）-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices may be weak due to factors such as the US economic stagflation expectation, Trump's deadline for Russia, and the results of China - US negotiations. However, the expectation of the "Golden September" peak season will limit the decline [1]. - Alumina is in a weak and volatile state due to increased supply expectations, while electrolytic aluminum may face downward pressure on its price center due to increased production and inventory accumulation. The aluminum alloy is expected to repair the price difference in the peak season [2]. - Nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by market sentiment in the short term and show a volatile trend, with support from the price of nickel - iron and intermediate products below and demand suppression above [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Copper: Overnight, LME copper fell 0.76% to $9634.5/ton, and SHFE copper fell 0.52% to 78070 yuan/ton. The US July ISM non - manufacturing index was lower than expected, triggering stagflation expectations. LME inventory increased by 14275 tons, Comex copper increased by 916 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1581 tons. Terminal orders slowed down during the off - season, and the market may be weak in early August, but the "Golden September" expectation will limit the decline [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina was weak and volatile, with AO2509 closing at 3207 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decline.沪铝 was strong and volatile, with AL2509 closing at 20525 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase. The supply of alumina is expected to increase, and the production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is rising, with potential inventory accumulation. The aluminum alloy may shift from the off - season to the peak - season price difference repair in 2511 [2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.33% to $15055/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.25% to 120500 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2172 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 247 tons. Nickel ore prices declined slightly, and stainless - steel raw material prices were divided. In the short term, prices are affected by market sentiment and show a volatile trend [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 45 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 14275 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1581 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and LME inventory decreased by 1250 tons, while the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 29 tons [3]. - Aluminum: The prices in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2300 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 2362 tons. The alumina inventory decreased by 1.2 million tons [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2172 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 247 tons. The social inventory of nickel decreased by 795 tons [4]. - Zinc: The主力结算 price increased by 0.5%, and the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by 130 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 793 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 4725 tons [5]. - Tin: The主力结算 price remained unchanged, and the SMM spot price increased by 1200 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 254 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 25 tons [5]. Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][13]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][19]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - Smelting Profit: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44]. 有色金属 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and has won multiple industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [47]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [47]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [48].