政策重心或从短期刺激转向新发展模式的探索

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate industry in China [4] Core Insights - The focus of policy may shift from short-term stimulus to exploring new development models, as indicated by the recent Politburo meeting which emphasized urban renewal without directly mentioning real estate [1][6] - Real estate market data has weakened since May, but the absence of direct references to real estate in the latest meeting suggests a reduced urgency for short-term stimulus, with a focus on stabilizing government debt risks instead [1] - The emphasis on "high-quality urban renewal" targets the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, although funding and project balance requirements may constrain overall progress [1][6] Summary by Sections Policy Focus - The recent Politburo meeting did not directly address real estate, indicating a potential shift in policy focus towards urban renewal and quality improvement rather than large-scale expansion [1] - The emphasis on urban renewal aligns with previous central government meetings that advocate for optimizing existing stock rather than promoting new construction [1] Market Conditions - Real estate data has shown a comprehensive decline since May, with significant year-on-year sales drops reported among major developers [5] - The report suggests that the risks associated with real estate have eased, leading to a more stable market environment [1][6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks for investment, including Beike-W (02423, Buy), China Vanke (600383, Accumulate), Longfor Group (00960, Buy), Poly Developments (600048, Buy), China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy), and New Town Holdings (601155, Not Rated) [6]