南向通系列报告之二：“南向通”扩容下点心债配置机会全解析

Group 1: Southbound Bond Connect Expansion - The Southbound Bond Connect's overall custody balance may exceed 800 billion RMB, with a theoretical maximum custody scale of over 1.8 trillion RMB by the end of 2025 if investment quotas and institutional expansions are implemented[2] - As of July 8, 2025, the Southbound Bond Connect has announced multiple optimization measures, including support for more domestic investors to invest in offshore bond markets and enhancements to liquidity management for foreign investors[2] - The total scale of bonds under the Southbound Bond Connect is currently 7.68 trillion RMB, with USD bonds, HKD bonds, and dim sum bonds accounting for 95% of the total[2] Group 2: Dim Sum Bonds Overview - The current stock of dim sum bonds under the Southbound Bond Connect is 1.7 trillion RMB, with credit bonds, government bonds, and certificates of deposit making up 57%, 29%, and 14% of the total, respectively[3] - Investment-grade dim sum credit bonds constitute 55% of the total dim sum credit bonds, while unrated bonds account for 44%[3] - The issuance scale of dim sum credit bonds reached 6.181 billion RMB by the end of July 2025, with a net financing scale exceeding 4 trillion RMB in 2024[2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Opportunities - The dim sum bond market has seen significant expansion since 2021, driven by policy support and tightening financing conditions for domestic city investment bonds[2] - The supply of dim sum bonds is primarily concentrated in the 3-year and under category, which accounts for 77.32% of the total stock[3] - The average coupon rates for government and non-city investment credit bonds range between 2.3% and 3.3%, while city investment dim sum bonds have significantly higher rates, exceeding 5% for bonds with maturities of 3 years or less[3] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Potential policy changes may impact the future expansion and scope of the Southbound Bond Connect, posing risks to investors[9] - Unexpected changes in overseas markets could disrupt offshore RMB liquidity, affecting the performance of dim sum bonds[9] - Credit defaults beyond expectations could significantly disturb the offshore bond market, highlighting the need for careful credit risk assessment[9]