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新能源及有色金属日报：消息面扰动影响较大，碳酸锂盘面振幅加剧-20250806
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-06 05:48

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The recent main driver of lithium carbonate is the disturbance at the mining end. Due to the approaching expiration of mining licenses of some mines in Jiangxi and the impact on mining in some African mines, and there is no clear conclusion about the disturbance, the futures market is expected to operate in a wide - range shock [2] 3. Summary by Related Sections Market Analysis - On August 5, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 68,840 yuan/ton and closed at 67,840 yuan/ton, with a daily closing price down 2.39% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 437,207 lots, and the open interest was 232,062 lots (compared to 215,949 lots in the previous trading day). The current basis was 1,400 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 14,443 lots, a change of 1,840 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,600 - 72,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,500 - 69,700 yuan/ton, also down 150 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Based on the weekly data of the first four weeks of July, the estimated total retail sales in July were about 1.78 million units, flat year - on - year and down 16% month - on - month. New energy vehicle retail sales were 950,000 units, down 14% month - on - month and up 8% year - on - year, with a penetration rate of about 53% - 54% [1] Strategy - The recent main driver of lithium carbonate is the mining - end disturbance. Since there is no clear conclusion about the disturbance, the futures market is expected to operate in a wide - range shock [2] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: None; Inter - delivery spread: None; Inter - commodity: None; Futures - cash: None; Options: None [4]