光大期货软商品日报（2025年8月6日）-20250806

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The view on cotton is that it will be in a state of oscillation. ICE US cotton rose 0.78% to 67.16 cents per pound on Tuesday, and CF509 rose 0.11% to 13,655 yuan per ton. The macro - level is the main focus in the international market, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, but the supply - demand of US cotton in the new year is relatively loose. In the domestic market, the macro sentiment is warm, and the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract's position is decreasing. The 09 contract has limited downside space but needs additional factors to rise, while the 01 contract is stable in the short - term and bullish in the long - term [2]. - The view on sugar is also oscillation. As of the end of July, Guangxi's sugar sales and sales rate increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory decreased. The spot quotes were mostly stable, and the raw sugar was generally weak but showed signs of stopping the decline. The domestic basis has basically been repaired, and the reverse arbitrage can stop profit - taking. Wait for the guidance of raw sugar and the trading opportunity of the January contract's oversold rebound [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Cotton: ICE US cotton rose 0.78% to 67.16 cents per pound, CF509 rose 0.11% to 13,655 yuan per ton, and the main contract's position decreased by 11,604 hands to 292,400 hands. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,081 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 15,169 yuan per ton, up 16 yuan per ton. The international market focuses on the macro - level, and the Fed's September interest - rate cut probability is high, but US cotton supply - demand is loose. The domestic macro sentiment is warm, and the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract's position is decreasing. The 09 contract has limited downside space and needs extra factors to rise, while the 01 contract is stable in the short - term and bullish in the long - term [2]. - Sugar: As of the end of July, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales were 5.4961 million tons, an increase of 396,600 tons year - on - year, and the sales rate was 85.01%, a 2.51 - percentage - point increase. In July, the single - month sales volume was 355,500 tons, a decrease of 217,800 tons year - on - year, and the industrial inventory was 968,900 tons, a decrease of 113,000 tons. Spot quotes were mostly stable, and the raw sugar was weak but showed signs of stopping the decline. The domestic basis has basically been repaired, and wait for raw sugar guidance and the January contract's trading opportunity [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 spread was - 165, a decrease of 35; the main basis was 1514, an increase of 36. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,081 yuan per ton, an increase of 12 yuan per ton, and the national spot price was 15,169 yuan per ton, an increase of 16 yuan per ton [3]. - Sugar: The 9 - 1 spread was 70, a decrease of 25 [3]. 3. Market Information - On August 5th, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 8,563, a decrease of 121 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 348 [4]. - On August 5th, the cotton arrival prices in Xinjiang, Henan, Shandong, and Zhejiang were 15,081 yuan per ton, 15,184 yuan per ton, 15,135 yuan per ton, and 15,225 yuan per ton respectively [4]. - On August 5th, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.4, an increase of 0.1; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.9, an increase of 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.7, a decrease of 0.1; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.8, unchanged [4]. - On August 5th, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were 6,030 yuan per ton (unchanged) and 6,035 yuan per ton (a decrease of 20 yuan per ton) respectively [4]. - On August 5th, the sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 19,260, a decrease of 113 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [5].