Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "oscillation" rating for LPG, indicating that the expected price fluctuation is within plus or minus one standard deviation [4]. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of LPG continues, and the cracking spread is running weakly. The internal market commodity sentiment has weakened, and the decline in coal prices has dragged down olefin prices, causing PG to follow suit. The impact of oil prices on the PG market has weakened recently. The pressure of associated gas in the US and the Middle East continues to suppress the overseas market. Although the US propane production has declined slightly, it remains at a high level. The operating rate of domestic refineries has slightly decreased, while the operating rate of major refineries remains at a high level for the same period. The supply pressure is difficult to refute. Overall, the current supply of PG is relatively loose. The price is expected to oscillate, and the cracking spread will run weakly [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG: Weekly View - Supply: Domestic major refineries have an operating rate of 81.55% (a month - on - month increase of 0.34%), independent refineries have an operating rate of 56.85% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.35%), the commercial volume of LPG is 52.65 tons (a 0.3% increase), the commercial volume of civil gas is 20.98 tons (a 0.3% decrease), and the arrival volume of LPG is 81 tons (a 65.3% increase). Overseas, the US propane production is 2822 thousand barrels per day (a 1.7% decrease) [4]. - Demand: In the domestic market, the price of gasoline in Shandong is 7799 yuan/ton (a 0.3% decrease), the cracking spread of Shandong gasoline against Brent is 10.16 dollars/barrel (a 22.3% decrease). The operating rate of MTBE is 65.89% (a 4.6% decrease), the operating rate of alkylated oil is 46.5614% (a 0.4% increase), and the operating rate of PDH plants is 72.63% (a 0.7% decrease). Overseas, the US propane exports this week are 1629 thousand barrels per day (a 22.2% decrease), and the inventory is 83477 thousand barrels (a 1.4% increase) [4]. - Valuation: The price of civil gas in Shandong is 4550 yuan/ton (a 1.5% decrease), and the price of ether - after C4 in Shandong is 4580 yuan/ton (a 3.4% decrease). Brent is at 71.27 dollars/barrel (a 4.1% increase), the CP price is 534.31 dollars/ton (a 1.9% increase), the MB price is 400.7 dollars/ton (a 2.6% increase), and the FEI price is 547.31 dollars/ton (a 2.8% increase) [4]. - Basis: The main basis of civil gas in Shandong is 340 yuan/ton (a 3% decrease) [4]. - Inventory: The refinery inventory is 18.08 tons (a 1.9% decrease), the port inventory is 313.44 tons (a 3.1% increase), and the storage capacity utilization rate of tertiary LPG stations is 60.33% (a 0.3% decrease) [4]. LPG: Price - Volume Performance - Futures and Paper - Futures Prices: As of August 1, the main LPG contract is at 3965 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 82 yuan/ton (- 2%); the FEI first - line contract is at 547.31 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 14.92 dollars/ton (2.8%); the CP first - line contract is at 534.31 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 9.9 dollars/ton (1.9%); the MB first - line contract is at 379.3 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 9.5 dollars/ton (2.6%) [8]. - Cracking Spreads: The first - line LPG cracking spread is - 209.1701 yuan/barrel, with a weekly change of - 21.5916 yuan/barrel (- 11.5107%). The MB propane first - line cracking spread is - 38.2 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 3 dollars/barrel (- 8.4%); the CP propane first - line cracking spread is - 28.2 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 2 dollars/barrel (- 7.8%); the FEI propane first - line cracking spread is - 27.2 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 1.6 dollars/barrel (- 6.4%); the NWE propane first - line cracking spread is - 33.73 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 2.8 dollars/barrel (- 8.9%) [8][13]. - Other Spreads: As of August 1, the PP - 1.2*PG main contract spread is 2340 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 24.6 yuan/ton (- 1%); the MOPJ naphtha and Cash Diff cracking spread is - 3.43 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of 0.1 dollars/barrel (3.1%); the MOPJ naphtha is at 596.25 dollars/ton, and the PN spread is - 48.94 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 2.8 dollars/ton (- 6%). The PG - FEI first - line spread is 16.4 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 220.8384 yuan/ton (- 93.0746%); the PG - CP first - line spread is 110.2 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 184.2971 yuan/ton (- 62.5759%) [19][28]. - Freight and Related Data: As of July 31, the freight from the Middle East to Japan is 85 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 0.3 dollars/ton (0.4%); the freight from the US Gulf to Flushing is 76.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 1.5 dollars/ton (- 1.9%); the freight from the US Gulf to Japan is 137.667 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 3.4 dollars/ton (- 2.4%). The Panama water level is 86.3 feet, with a weekly change of - 0.1 feet (- 0.1%). The number of ships waiting to pass through the Panama Neopanamax lock is 25, with a weekly increase of 3 (13.6%); the number of ships waiting to pass through the Panamax Plus lock is 41, with a weekly increase of 13 (46.4%); the total is 66, with a weekly increase of 16 (32%) [31]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of the week of August 1, the registered warehouse receipts of Chinese LPG futures are 48975 lots, with a change of 955 lots (1.9888%) from last week. In July, the delivery volume of Chinese LPG futures is 1783 lots, with a change of + 1391 lots (+ 354.85%) from last month [34]. LPG: Supply - Demand Progress - Supply: In the week of July 1, the commercial volume of civil gas is 20.98 tons, a decrease of 0.06 tons (- 0.29%) from last week. The commercial volume of Chinese LPG is 52.65 tons, an increase of 0.16 tons (+ 0.3%) from last week. The weekly arrival volume of LPG is 81 tons, an increase of 32 tons (+ 65.31%) from last week [40]. - Demand: - MTBE: As of August 1, the MTBE market price is 5040 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 35 yuan/ton (- 0.7%); the MTBE plant profit is - 94 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 2.3 yuan/ton (2.3%); the MTBE plant operating rate is 65.89%, with a weekly change of - 3.2% (- 4.63%) [44]. - Alkylated Oil: As of August 1, the alkylated oil market price is 7899 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 37 yuan/ton (- 0.5%); the alkylated oil plant profit is - 3.5 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 17 yuan/ton (- 125.93%); the alkylated oil plant operating rate is 46.5614%, with a weekly change of + 0.2% (+ 0.43%) [48]. - PDH: As of August 1, the MTO - made propylene profit is - 737.6 yuan/ton, a change of - 157.8 yuan/ton (+ 27.22%) from last week; the naphtha - made propylene profit is - 86.6 dollars/ton, a change of - 15.2 dollars/ton (+ 21.29%) from last week; the PDH - made propylene profit is - 454.6 yuan/ton, a change of - 9.6 yuan/ton (+ 2.16%) from last week. The PDH plant operating rate is 72.63%, with a change of - 0.5% (- 0.68%) from last week [55]. - Inventory: - Refinery Inventory: As of August 1, the Chinese refinery inventory is 18.08 tons, a decrease of 0.35 tons (- 1.9%) from last week. The Shandong refinery inventory is 1.6 tons, an increase of 0.07 tons (+ 4.58%) from last week; the East China refinery inventory is 2.63 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons (- 12.91%) from last week; the South China refinery inventory is 2.58 tons, an increase of 0.01 tons (+ 0.39%) from last week [59]. - Port Inventory: The port inventory remains at a high level [61]. - Downstream Storage Capacity Utilization Rate: The downstream storage capacity utilization rate shows differentiation but remains relatively stable overall [64]. - US Situation: As of July 25, the US propane inventory is 83477 thousand barrels, an increase of 1150 thousand barrels (+ 1.4%) from last week; the US propane production is 2822 thousand barrels, a decrease of 49 thousand barrels (- 1.71%) from last week; the US propane exports are 1629 thousand barrels, a decrease of 466 thousand barrels (- 22.24%) from last week; the 4 - week average of US implied demand is 875 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 130 thousand barrels per day (+ 17.45%) from last week [69]. - Monthly Data: In July, the monthly production of Chinese LPG is 440 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 1.7199%), and from January to July 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese LPG is 3065.2 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 2.6271%). In June, the monthly import volume of Chinese LPG is 267.4 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 21.1%), and from January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of Chinese LPG is 1767 tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.5%). In June, the monthly export volume of Chinese LPG is 8.8 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 23.2%), and from January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese LPG is 54.5 tons (a year - on - year increase of 5.8%). In June, the monthly apparent demand for Chinese LPG is 694.5 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%), and from January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent demand for Chinese LPG is 4337.6 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%) [71].
LPG：供应压力延续，裂解偏弱运行
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-06 06:00