原油日报：印度强硬回应特朗普制裁威胁，油价继续回落-20250806

Report Summary Investment Rating - The report suggests a mid - term short - position allocation for oil prices, with oil prices expected to trade in a range [3] Core Viewpoints - India responded strongly to Trump's threat of sanctions on countries buying Russian energy, indicating it would defend its national interests and suggesting its policy of purchasing Russian oil won't change [2] - Oil prices have continued to decline due to concerns about demand and increased OPEC+ supply, but the potential disruption of Russian oil exports limits the decline. The future of oil prices largely depends on Trump's decision on sanctions against Russia [1][5] Market News and Key Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.13 to $65.16 per barrel, a 1.70% decline; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London fell $1.12 to $67.64 per barrel, a 1.63% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.30% at 503 yuan per barrel [1] - The price of AI - 95 gasoline on the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange hit a record high, exceeding 77,000 rubles ($964.6) per ton. The market attributes the price increase to the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries on August 2nd, which damaged crude oil processing facilities with a total capacity of about 40,000 tons per day, and repairs are expected to take 1 to 6 months [1] - BP CEO Murray Auchincloss said that the growth of non - OPEC oil supply will peak in early 2026, while demand remains strong. He expects non - OPEC supply to be basically flat 12 to 18 months after February or March next year. Oil market demand is still "quite strong" and is expected to grow this year and next year, with petrochemical products leading consumption next year. Developments related to sanctions on Russia and Iran are the main drivers of oil price increases [1] - US President Trump will decide whether to impose sanctions on countries buying Russian energy after a meeting on Wednesday. When asked about imposing a 100% oil tariff on Russia, he said it was quite possible [1] Investment Logic - India responded strongly to Trump's threats of tariffs on Russian oil imports, stating it would defend national interests and accusing Western countries of hypocrisy. The market believes India's policy of purchasing Russian oil will not change as it can't find alternative sources, and even if there are alternatives, the volume is expected to be very small [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to trade in a range, with a mid - term short - position allocation [3]