2025年8月6日大公报：减息预期升温，美汇短线走弱

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP grew by 3% in Q2, surpassing the market expectation of 2.4%[1] - The PCE price index rose from 2.3% to 2.6% year-on-year in June, with core PCE increasing to 2.8%[1] - Non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 110,000[2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive hold[2] - Following the employment report, the probability of a rate cut in September surged to approximately 80%[3] - The Fed's hawkish stance previously led to a six-day rise in the U.S. dollar index, which reached a high of 100.257[3] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 400 points after the employment data release, while the Nasdaq dropped over 2%[3] - The U.S. dollar index experienced short-term weakness, retreating to around 99 after the non-farm payroll data[3]