供应扰动不断，焦煤强势上涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term contradiction in the coking coal fundamentals is not prominent. With the influence of multiple positive news, market sentiment has recovered. The market trading will gradually return to the fundamental logic. Currently, coking coal supply has not fully recovered, and the short - term fundamentals still support prices. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine resumption, and Mongolian coal imports [3] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Today, both coking coal and coke closed higher. The main coking coal contract hit the daily limit during the session, and JM2601 closed at 1,182.0 yuan/ton [1] Policy and Production Impact - The revised "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" will be implemented on February 1, 2026, with more refined and standardized safety regulations, currently having no significant impact on actual coal mine production. The National Energy Administration is verifying coal mine over - production. Coal enterprises in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have received relevant notices. The over - production verification in Changzhi coal mines started last week, with little impact on local production for now, and the subsequent impact remains to be seen [2] Fundamental Situation - Supply: Main producing area coal mines generally maintain the previous production rhythm, and overall supply is slowly recovering. Import: The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week exceeded 1,200 vehicles, reaching a high for the year, and Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. Demand: Coke production is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Affected by the recent decline in the futures market, downstream and traders are more wait - and - see, and the spot market sentiment has cooled down. However, coal mines had many pre - sold orders before, and upstream coal mines are still destocking. It will take time for the increase in domestic supply and Mongolian coal imports to be reflected, and the upstream coal mine destocking cycle continues [2]