DY1473HK：乐舒适（5019）：新兴市场卫品龙头企业，非洲市场市占率名列前茅-20250806

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the market in the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the emerging market hygiene products sector, with a strong market share in Africa. In 2023, it held the top position in the African market for baby diapers and sanitary napkins, with market shares of 20.0% and 14.0% respectively [7][10]. - Revenue has been consistently growing, with a 28.6% year-on-year increase in 2023, driven by an expanded sales network and optimized product mix. However, growth slowed to 7.2% in the first three quarters of 2024 due to a decline in product prices [7][20]. - The emerging markets for baby and female hygiene products show significant growth potential, with Africa's newborn population growing at a CAGR of 1.5% from 2019 to 2023, and low market penetration rates for hygiene products [7][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in 2009, became independent in 2022 and focuses on hygiene products for emerging markets, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia. It has a strong presence in the African market [7][10]. 2. Revenue Growth - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of $410 million, a 28.6% increase year-on-year. The growth was attributed to market expansion and product optimization. However, revenue growth slowed to 7.2% in the first three quarters of 2024 due to a 6-11% decline in product prices [20][21]. 3. Market Potential - The company operates in a market with significant growth potential, particularly in Africa, where the penetration rates for baby diapers and sanitary napkins are low compared to developed markets. The CAGR for the African baby diaper market is projected at 8.0% from 2023 to 2028 [38][39]. 4. Product Portfolio - The company has a diverse brand matrix, with its flagship brand, Softcare, contributing significantly to revenue. The average price of its products is approximately 70-80% of that of leading international brands [14][21]. 5. Cost Structure and Profitability - The company's gross margin improved significantly from 23.0% in 2022 to 34.9% in 2023, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs. The net profit margin also increased to 21.6% in the first three quarters of 2024 [29][34].