国金期货铜期货7月报：美国铜关税靴子落地，铜价承压-20250806

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the two "boots" of the US copper tariff increase landed, causing the COMEX copper price to plummet, and the London and Shanghai copper prices also declined successively. After the tariff increase, over 600,000 tons of copper previously stored in the US re - entered the market, putting short - term pressure on copper prices [1] - Fundamental factors will lead to a short - term decline in copper prices, but copper is a tight - balance variety, and the price decline will be very unsmooth and may even be repeated. Later, attention should be paid to the comprehensive impact of the final implementation of the US tariff increase policy and the Fed's interest rate cut on copper prices [9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Market Review - In July, the copper market experienced two major unexpected events. On July 9, Trump suddenly announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, and on July 31, he announced details of the copper tariff increase, exempting copper concentrates, scrap copper, copper lead, and cathode copper from the 50% tariff and only imposing it on intermediate processed products and some final finished products. These two events greatly changed market expectations and led to a sharp drop in the COMEX copper price [2] - In July, the COMEX December 2025 main contract closed at $4.5010 per pound, down $0.6760 per pound or 13.06% from the June closing price. The price once reached a record high of $6.0215 per pound ($13,275 per ton). The LME copper 3 - month electronic contract closed at $9,607 per ton in July, down $271 per ton or 2.74%. The Shanghai copper main contract 2509 closed at 78,040 yuan per ton, down 1,640 yuan per ton or 2.06% [3] - The table shows the monthly market conditions of SHFE copper, including opening prices, high prices, low prices, closing prices, price changes, positions, position changes, settlement prices, trading volumes, and trading amounts for different delivery months [7]