Ping An Securities·2025-08-06 07:37Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a pioneer in international cement, benefiting from domestic market dynamics and the trend of reducing excessive competition [1][6]. - The company has shown resilience in its operational performance, with significant contributions from its aggregate business and a growing share of overseas revenue [6][15]. - The domestic cement market is expected to stabilize and improve profitability due to government policies aimed at reducing overcapacity and promoting orderly competition [6][27]. - The overseas market presents substantial growth opportunities, particularly in Africa, where demand for cement is expected to remain strong [6][33]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has evolved from a domestic cement manufacturer to a global building materials group, covering a full industry chain including cement, concrete, and aggregates [11]. - It ranks fourth globally in clinker production capacity among Chinese cement companies, with a significant increase in overseas revenue share from 10% in 2015 to 24% in 2024 [6][17]. Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic cement market is experiencing price fluctuations due to weak demand and challenges in coordinated production [6][27]. - Government initiatives to curb "involution" in the industry are expected to lead to a more orderly market and potential price recovery [6][27]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a year-on-year growth of 50%-55% [15]. Overseas Market Expansion - The company is accelerating its overseas market layout, with plans to significantly increase its cement grinding capacity and pursue acquisitions, such as an $800 million project in Nigeria [6][33]. - The overseas business is expected to be a major growth driver, with higher profit margins compared to domestic operations [6][34]. Aggregate Business Performance - The aggregate business has shown a notable increase in both revenue and profit contribution, with a gross margin of 48% expected in 2024 [6][39]. - Despite short-term price pressures in the aggregate market, the company maintains a positive outlook for profitability due to its competitive advantages [6][39]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 27.3 billion, 30.4 billion, and 32.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 13.0%, 11.5%, and 7.6% [6][15]. - The current market valuation reflects a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7, 9.6, and 8.9 for the next three years, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [6][15].