甲醇日报20250806：焦煤仍带来情绪扰动-20250806

Report Summary of Methanol Daily Review on August 6, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. Although there was a rebound in MA, the expected anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production. With high upstream coal - head profits, slightly lower coastal MTO profits, poor inland downstream profits, and high downstream MTO enterprise raw material inventories, the port is likely to continue to accumulate inventory, suppressing the East China spot price. The recent rally in methanol is expected to have limited upside due to the weak fundamentals, despite the influence of coking coal sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 closed at 2497 yuan/ton on August 5, 2025, up 10 yuan/ton (0.40%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2447 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.66%); MA09 closed at 2397 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.29%) [1]. - Methanol Spot Prices: Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. For example, prices in Shandong increased by 15 yuan/ton (0.65%), in Guangdong by 7.5 yuan/ton (0.32%), and in Hubei by 45 yuan/ton (1.93%), while prices in Shaanxi decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 129.50 yuan/ton on August 5, 2025, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - Coal Spot Prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 coal increased by 5 yuan/ton (1.04%), and the price of Datong Q5500 coal increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (2.27%), while the price of Yulin Q6000 coal remained unchanged [1]. - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.2 Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: Coal - based methanol profit was 470.40 yuan/ton on August 5, 2025, up 53.70 yuan/ton (12.89%) from the previous day, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 540.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream Profits: Profits of Northwest MTO decreased by 10 yuan/ton (- 9.58%), and profits of East China MTO decreased by 32 yuan/ton (- 5.08%). Profits of acetic acid decreased by 6.58 yuan/ton (- 2.76%), while profits of MTBE increased by 7.44 yuan/ton (4.64%). Profits of formaldehyde decreased by 38.80 yuan/ton (- 14.76%), and profits of a certain product decreased by 184 yuan/ton (- 56.44%) [1]. 3.3 Information - Domestic Information: The main methanol contract MA2509 rebounded, closing at 2397 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 372,112 lots and an open interest of 484,212 lots, showing a decrease in volume and position [1]. - Foreign Information: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 2.65 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance. The overall operating load of methanol plants in this country is low, with the recent overall operating rate dropping to 56%, and the daily total output of methanol plants being less than 30,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the loading speed at the port [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Given the recent rebound in MA and the repeated expectations of anti - involution policies, and the influence of the coking coal limit - up on the coal - chemical sentiment, the fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. The upstream coal - head profits are high, coastal MTO profits are slightly lower, and inland downstream profits are poor, indicating that methanol is relatively over - valued. The anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, and with high downstream MTO enterprise raw material inventories, port inventory accumulation is likely to continue, suppressing the East China spot price. The recent rally in methanol is expected to have limited upside [1].