有色金属周报（电解铜）：美国就业数据趋弱使9、10、12月降息预期升温，全球电解铜库存持续累积或令铜价承压-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening US employment market has raised expectations of Fed rate cuts, but the traditional domestic consumption off - season has suppressed downstream demand, leading to an upward trend in the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad. As a result, there is still room for the Shanghai copper price to decline. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [4]. - The positive basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai copper are generally within a reasonable range. The negative spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are at relatively low levels, and the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper and Shanghai copper has significantly declined. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [8][9][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Environment - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in July. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing an increase in the annual rates of US consumer - end inflation CPI and PCE in June. However, due to the significant downward revision or far - below - expected new non - farm payrolls from May to July, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in September, October, and December [3]. Upstream Market - Copper Concentrate - Multiple incidents occurred in overseas mines, including accidents at Newmont's Red Chris copper mine, the start of trial production at Anglo Asian Mining's Demirli copper mine, and others. These may lead to a month - on - month increase in domestic copper concentrate production and imports in August [3][25]. - The import index of Chinese copper concentrate is negative but has increased compared to last week. The port copper concentrate out - bound volume in the world and in China has decreased, while the in - bound volume in China has increased, and the inventory in Chinese ports has decreased [22]. - Scrap Copper - The negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper weakens the economic viability of scrap copper. The export of high - quality scrap copper in Europe is restricted, and there is uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations. As a result, the production of domestic scrap copper in August may increase month - on - month, while imports may decrease, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [26][30]. - Blister Copper - The weekly processing fees for blister copper in northern (southern) China remained flat (increased) compared to last week. The smelting maintenance capacity of domestic smelters in August may decrease month - on - month, leading to a month - on - month increase in the production and imports of domestic blister copper in August [33]. Mid - stream Market - Electrolytic Copper - The production of domestic electrolytic copper in August may decrease month - on - month due to the start of new projects and other factors. The import volume of domestic electrolytic copper in August may also decrease month - on - month because of the maintenance and production reduction of overseas smelters and the backlog of electrolytic copper at African ports [34][36][39]. - Copper Smelters - The daily dispersion index of global copper smelters has increased compared to last week. The smelting maintenance capacity of domestic copper smelters in August may decrease month - on - month [40][42]. Downstream Market - Copper Products Enterprises - Affected by the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production volume, import volume, and export volume of domestic copper products enterprises in August may decline, increase, decrease, and decrease respectively on a month - on - month basis [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's refined (recycled) copper rod production enterprises has increased compared to last week. The raw material and finished - product inventories of refined copper rod enterprises have increased, while those of recycled copper rod enterprises have decreased [45][47][50]. - The capacity utilization rate and production volume of China's refined copper rod production enterprises in August may increase month - on - month, while those of recycled copper rod production enterprises may decrease month - on - month [55][58]. - The raw material and finished - product inventories of China's copper wire and cable enterprises have decreased compared to last week, and the capacity utilization rate in August may decrease month - on - month [59][63]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper enameled wire enterprises has decreased compared to last week, and it may also decrease month - on - month in August [65][68]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper strip enterprises in August may decrease month - on - month due to the impact of US tariff policies [72][74]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper foil enterprises in August may increase month - on - month, supported by lithium - battery demand [75]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tube enterprises in August may decrease month - on - month as the expected production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August is lower than that of last year [79][81]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod enterprises in August may increase month - on - month as the decline in copper prices may slightly boost demand [82]. Market Structure and Inventory - Market Structure - The closing prices of Shanghai copper's near - and far - month contracts show a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper show a Contango structure [12]. - Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week, the inventory in bonded areas has decreased, and the inventory of LME copper has increased [15][16]. - The inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared to last week, and the ratio of non - commercial long to short positions has decreased [17][19].