原油月报：短期旺季需求偏强，俄油供应担忧刺激油价-20250806

Group 1: Oil Price Trends - Short-term seasonal demand is strong, supported by concerns over Russian oil supply due to U.S. sanctions[2] - Brent crude oil price is expected to have a support level around $65 per barrel in Q3 2025, but may decline to below $60 after the peak season[7] - EIA predicts the average Brent crude oil price for 2025 to be $69 per barrel, up by $3 from the previous forecast[7] Group 2: OPEC+ Production and Supply - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day starting August 2025, with a total recovery plan of 1.66 million barrels per day under consideration[4] - OPEC's June 2025 oil production was 27,237 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 219 thousand barrels per day from May[9] - Non-OPEC DoC countries' oil production increased by 129 thousand barrels per day in June 2025, with Kazakhstan showing a significant increase[16] Group 3: Global Oil Demand - Global oil demand is projected to reach 105.1 million barrels per day in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.29 million barrels per day[23] - China's oil demand is expected to be 16.9 million barrels per day in 2025, with a slight decrease from the previous month but still showing a year-on-year increase[23] - The demand for gasoline, aviation kerosene, and diesel is expected to drive oil demand growth, despite potential declines in gasoline consumption in China[38]