Shanxi Securities·2025-08-06 08:52Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the agriculture sector, suggesting a focus on the recovery cycle of feed and marginal improvements in breeding [1]. Core Insights - The agriculture sector has shown a decline of 2.97% in the past week, with the animal health, food and feed additives, fruit and vegetable processing, aquaculture, and seeds sub-industries performing the best [1][22]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in the feed industry due to the decline in upstream raw material prices and improvements in the breeding sector, particularly for Haida Group, which is expected to see an upward trend in its operational fundamentals [2][4]. - The report emphasizes that the current market may be overly pessimistic about the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability, while it overlooks the positive effects of declining raw material costs and potential macro demand recovery in 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Swine Breeding - As of August 1, 2025, the average prices for external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 13.70, 16.04, and 14.38 yuan per kilogram, reflecting increases of 0.74%, 3.22%, and 1.77% respectively [2][31]. - The average pork price was 20.60 yuan per kilogram, down 1.29% from the previous week, while the average wholesale price for piglets was 27.00 yuan per kilogram, up 3.85% [31]. - The report suggests that the swine breeding industry is expected to enter a profitability cycle starting from Q2 2024, although the average debt reduction rate indicates a long road ahead for the industry [3]. Poultry Breeding - The weekly price for white feather broilers was 6.83 yuan per kilogram, up 1.94%, while the price for broiler chicks rose significantly by 33.16% to 2.57 yuan per chick [46]. - The report notes that the breeding profit for broilers is currently negative at -0.43 yuan per chick, and egg prices have decreased by 2.70% to 7.20 yuan per kilogram [46]. Feed Processing - In June 2025, the total industrial feed production in China was 27.67 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [55]. - The report indicates that the production of compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premix feed saw year-on-year growth of 6.6%, 3.4%, and 8.7% respectively [55]. Aquaculture - As of August 1, 2025, the prices for sea cucumbers, shrimp, and bass remained stable at 90.00 yuan per kilogram, 320.00 yuan per kilogram, and 50.00 yuan per kilogram respectively [64]. - In freshwater products, the price for grass carp was 16.70 yuan per kilogram, down 0.30%, while crucian carp saw a slight increase of 0.09% to 22.99 yuan per kilogram [64]. Crop and Grain Processing - As of August 1, 2025, soybean prices were stable at 3926.32 yuan per ton, while corn and wheat prices slightly decreased to 2402.75 yuan and 2440.50 yuan per ton respectively [75]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the price of enoki mushrooms, which rose by 37.78% to 6.20 yuan per kilogram [75].