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煤焦:库存压力下降,盘面震荡加剧
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-08-06 09:06

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Market speculation sentiment has cooled, coal prices are gradually returning to rationality, but short - term fundamental improvements support coal prices to run strongly, and price fluctuations remain severe. It is recommended to participate with caution [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Report Market Performance - Yesterday, the prices of coal and coke futures fluctuated strongly, with intensified intraday fluctuations. The spot market price performance lagged behind the futures, maintaining a strong operation, and the fifth round of coke price increase was fully implemented [3] Supply Side - Regarding the tracking of over - production issues, last week, regions in Shanxi except Lvliang received documents and started to verify production. The document may not cause an obvious reduction in short - term coking coal production, but the medium - and long - term impact on coal mine production should be noted. Recently, some coal mines have faced suspension for rectification and fines due to their 2024 raw coal output exceeding the approved capacity by 33%. With the approaching September military parade, the safety supervision situation is severe, and it is expected that the short - term coal mine increment is limited [3] Inventory Status - The structural inventory pressure has been significantly alleviated. Currently, the raw coal inventory of 523 coal mines is 4.83 million tons, a decrease of 2.18 million tons from the high point in June; the clean coal inventory is 2.48 million tons, a decrease of 2.52 million tons from the high point in June [4] Demand Side - Last week, the raw material replenishment actions of coking plants and steel mills slowed down. The available days of coking coal inventory in the plants stabilized after rising from a low level. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, production remains at a relatively high level, and the daily average pig iron output is over 2.4 million tons, which supports the demand for raw materials [4] Future Focus - Pay attention to changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of coal mine production [4]