海外市场周观察（20250728~20250803）

Economic Indicators - The July non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, which was below the expected 108,000, indicating a cooling labor market[5] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while the labor participation rate decreased to 62.2%[5] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 were 218,000, showing a slight increase but maintaining a downward trend in the two-month moving average[5] Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 2.92%, S&P 500 by 2.36%, and Nasdaq by 2.17% following the non-farm data release[6] - The U.S. dollar index rebounded above 100 but fell back to 98.69 after the non-farm data, resulting in a weekly increase of 1.04%[6] - Gold prices saw a slight increase of 0.79%, while Brent crude oil rose by 2.84% during the same period[6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The FOMC's July meeting indicated a hawkish stance, with no guidance on potential rate cuts in September, leading to mixed market expectations[4] - As of August 4, market expectations for rate cuts in September, October, and December were each set at 25 basis points, reflecting a shift in sentiment following the labor market data[4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to resume rate cuts, recommending investment in gold and emerging markets during a weak dollar cycle[7] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring overseas liquidity and geopolitical risks as potential threats to market stability[7]