黑色金属数据日报-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are driven by coal costs with a slightly lifted price center, and the supply - demand structure has marginally weakened with no prominent overall contradictions. Attention should be paid to pre - parade production restrictions [3]. - Coking coal and coke futures have strengthened, with far - month contracts hitting the daily limit. However, regulatory risks increase after the far - month contracts hit the limit again, and short - term capital games dominate [4]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are supported by the "anti - involution" logic, but market sentiment may fluctuate, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory [5]. - After the relevant meetings, the iron ore sector has seen sharp fluctuations. Although there is an expected supply increase in the second half of the year, the 01 contract still has upward potential after adjustment [6]. Summary by Categories Futures Market - Far - month Contracts on August 5th: RB2601 closed at 3306.00 yuan/ton, up 56.00 yuan (1.72%); HC2601 at 3462.00 yuan/ton, up 66.00 yuan (1.94%); I2601 at 778.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan (1.83%); J2601 at 1708.00 yuan/ton, up 67.00 yuan (4.08%); JM2605 at 1233.00 yuan/ton, up 91.00 yuan (7.97%) [1]. - Near - month Contracts on August 5th: RB2510 closed at 3233.00 yuan/ton, up 44.00 yuan (1.38%); HC2510 at 3457.00 yuan/ton, up 64.00 yuan (1.89%); I2509 at 798.50 yuan/ton, up 9.50 yuan (1.20%); J2509 at 1634.50 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan (3.16%); JM2601 at 1182.00 yuan/ton, up 76.50 yuan (6.92%) [1]. - Spread and Ratio on August 5th: The spread between RB2510 - 2601 was - 73.00 yuan/ton; the spread between HC2510 - 2601 was - 5.00 yuan/ton; the coil - to - rebar spread was 224.00 yuan/ton; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.05; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.38; the rebar surface profit was 40.48 yuan/ton; the coking surface profit was 62.44 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - Steel on August 5th: Shanghai rebar was 3370.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3310.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3370.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3460.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3500.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3460.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [1]. - Other Materials on August 5th: Tangshan billet was 3080.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; PB fines at Rizhao Port were 776.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan; Super Special fines at Qingdao Port were 650.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1150.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port (ex - warehouse) was 1480.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - Basis on August 5th: The basis of HC main contract was 3.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; the basis of RB main contract was 137.00 yuan/ton, up 11.00 yuan; the basis of I main contract was 3.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; the basis of J main contract was - 8.10 yuan/ton, down 19.50 yuan; the basis of JM main contract was - 2.00 yuan/ton, down 41.00 yuan [1]. Investment Suggestions - Steel: Focus on the support of EAF valley - electricity cost for single - side trading, and there are partial profit - taking opportunities for spreads [7]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Buy on dips [8]. - Iron Ore: The support for the 01 contract is still valid, and there is an upward opportunity after adjustment [6].