铁矿石：焦煤带动市场情绪，短期矿价区间运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term macro enters a window period, the black series maintains a high - level consolidation cycle. The support from foreign ore supply weakens marginally. In August, foreign ore shipments gradually recover. Considering the current high blast furnace profits and the off - season but non - weak terminal demand, domestic demand is expected to remain relatively high in the short term. The supply and demand of iron ore are in a stage of balance, and port inventories tend to be stable or rise slightly. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate at a high level. The i2601 contract price will range from 745 yuan/ton to 780 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE09 contract price will range from 98.5 to 103 US dollars/ton [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - The short - term supply support weakens marginally. Foreign ore shipments will gradually enter a seasonal recovery cycle. After the maintenance period of BHP and FMG mines in Australia ends, their shipments recover, while Brazilian shipments weaken this period. The short - term arrival volume rebounds from a low level, increasing the immediate supply pressure [2] Demand - The domestic average daily hot metal output has declined for two consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. The current average daily hot metal output is 240.71 (a month - on - month decrease of 1.52). However, the current profitability rate of steel mills continues to rise, and the blast furnace profit level is relatively considerable. Short - term iron ore demand remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether the hot metal output can remain at a high level in the later stage [2] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at the steel mill end remains high. Due to the continuous rise in iron ore prices, steel mills continue to replenish their stocks. As the arrival volume drops to a relatively low - middle level, port inventories have significantly declined this period. In the future, with the recovery of shipments and the marginal weakening of hot metal output, it is expected that short - term inventories will generally tend to be stable or rise slightly [2]