瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250806

Report Overview - Report Title: PVC Industry Daily Report 2025-08-06 [2] - Analyst: Lin Jingyi (F03139610, Z0021558), Assistant Analyst: Xu Tianze (F03133092) [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - V2509 rose 1.18% to close at 5051 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate increased 0.05% to 76.84% week-on-week. The downstream demand is in the off - season with only rigid procurement. The new capacity will gradually increase the supply in August. The restart of devices this week will likely increase the capacity utilization rate. The domestic downstream demand is weak, and the rainy season hinders overseas demand. The cost of calcium carbide has price support, and the ethylene price is expected to remain stable. The V2509 rebound is limited due to the limited improvement in supply - demand fundamentals. Technically, the daily K - line should pay attention to the pressure around 5120 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Closing price of PVC futures: 5051 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; trading volume: 876,411 lots, down 21,950 lots; open interest: 674,125 lots, down 37,521 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders increased by 17,781 lots to - 10,891 lots [3]. 2. Spot Market - In the East China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 5130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the calcium - carbide - based PVC price was 4901.15 yuan/ton, up 26.15 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 5035 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the calcium - carbide - based PVC price was 4918.12 yuan/ton, up 16.25 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 111 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2598.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2378 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 211 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 219 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 76.84%, up 0.05 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC was 76.03%, down 3.22 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 78.99%, up 8.72 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 448,000 tons, up 21,000 tons. The inventory in East China was 394,800 tons, up 16,600 tons; in South China, it was 53,200 tons, up 4400 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.6, down 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6.3332143 billion square meters, up 83.0189 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 2447.55 billion yuan, up 532.069 billion yuan [3]. 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 29.69%, down 0.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 22.83%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC was 17.26%, up 0.32 and 0.33 percentage points respectively [3]. 7. Industry News - On August 6, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou increased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton to 4900 - 4980 yuan/ton. From July 26 to August 1, the PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, up 0.05% week - on - week. As of July 31, the PVC social inventory increased 5.67% to 722,100 tons week - on - week and decreased 24.10% year - on - year [3].