Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-06 09:48Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the weakening US dollar and short - covering, the price of US cotton futures has stabilized and rebounded, awaiting the weekly export report [2]. - In the domestic market, cotton is in a de - stocking state, with no news on quotas and tight supply before the new cotton is launched. The consumption off - season characteristics of the textile industry are evident, with mainland spinning mills having no profit, a continuous decline in the overall operating rate, and enterprises purchasing raw materials mainly for immediate needs [2]. - In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased. The highest temperature in Xinjiang has decreased this week, reducing the impact of weather factors. Currently, cotton is in the process of roll - over. The cotton 2601 contract shows a rebound trend. Although the current supply is tight, weak downstream demand, increased new - crop area and output, reduced influence of weather factors, and market expectations for quotas are expected to limit the rebound space, resulting in overall volatile fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13,690, up 35; cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 19,710, up 40 [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 27,507, down 1,391; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): 22, down 30 [2]. - Main contract open interest: cotton (daily, lots): 281,472, down 10,958; cotton yarn (daily, lots): 13,482, up 2,614 [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantity: cotton (daily, sheets): 8,464, down 99; cotton yarn (daily, sheets): 88, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 15,178, up 9; China Yarn Price Index: pure - cotton carded yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 20,640, down 30 [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,480, up 59; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: pure - cotton carded yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22,154, up 18 [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 14,282, up 49; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: pure - cotton combed yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 24,035, up 19 [2]. Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2,838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, up 0.54 [2]. Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5,462, down 39; industrial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 85, up 2.4 [2]. - Cotton import quantity: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 3, down 1; cotton yarn import quantity: monthly value (monthly, tons): 110,000, up 10,000 [2]. - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 936, up 5; commercial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 282.98, down 62.89 [2]. Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days (monthly, days): 23.86, up 1.52; inventory days of grey fabric (monthly, days): 35.46, up 2.57 [2]. - Cloth output: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 27.79, up 1.09; yarn output: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 206.5, up 11.4 [2]. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value (monthly, million US dollars): 1,526,671.4, up 168,897.7; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value (monthly, million US dollars): 1,204,820.7, down 58,356.6 [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options on cotton (%): 10.36, up 2.2; implied volatility of at - the - money put options on cotton (%): 10.36, up 2.2 [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 11.25, down 0.02; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 8.05, down 1.13 [2]. Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing. As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 2.1571 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1485 million tons (a decrease of 6.44%). Among them, the commercial inventory of cotton in Xinjiang was 1.4111 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1322 million tons (a decrease of 8.57%), and the commercial inventory of cotton in the inland area was 0.4106 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0016 million tons (an increase of 0.39%) [2]. - On Tuesday, the December ICE cotton contract closed up 0.81%. On Wednesday, the cotton 2509 contract rose 0.15%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract closed down 0.23% [2].