瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage where supply growth slows down and demand remains relatively stable, with industrial expectations gradually improving under policy guidance. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage where supply remains at a high level but the growth rate slows down, and demand is weak due to the off - season. The long - term expectation is still positive after policy - guided optimization. Option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The cast aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage where supply slightly converges and demand weakens in the off - season. The operation suggestion is to conduct oscillating trades with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 20,650 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the closing price of the main alumina futures contract is 3,241 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum and alumina decreased by 1008 and 6436 hands respectively. LME aluminum cancelled warrants increased by 1575 tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 2300 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio is 8.05, up 0.05 [2]. - The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract is 20,075 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan, and its main contract position increased by 38 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,560 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 635 yuan to 75 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 20 yuan to - 20 yuan. The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium and discount is - 40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount is 0.12 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national alumina开工率 is 84.01%, up 1.52 percentage points; the alumina production is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons. The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part decreased by 23.83 million tons to 696.19 million tons [2]. - The import of alumina increased by 3.38 million tons to 10.13 million tons, and the export decreased by 4 million tons to 17 million tons. The average price of broken primary aluminum in Foshan and Shandong metal scrap markets remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 1 million tons to 49.70 million tons. The electrolytic aluminum total production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum开工率 is 97.78%, up 0.10 percentage points [2]. - The aluminum product production is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons. The export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 6 million tons to 49 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. The export of aluminum alloy increased by 0.16 million tons to 2.58 million tons [2]. - The national real estate climate index is 93.60, down 0.11. The automobile production is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.12 percentage points to 9.61%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.54 percentage points to 8.77%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the main Shanghai aluminum contract decreased by 0.0085 to 8.63%, and the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0107 to 1.21 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In June, the US merchandise and services trade deficit shrank by 16% month - on - month to $60.2 billion, the lowest since September 2023, mainly due to companies cutting purchases after a large - scale import wave at the beginning of the year [2]. - Seven departments including the central bank encourage long - term funds to support digital infrastructure construction. The Passenger Car Association raised the full - year sales forecast for 2025 to 24.35 million vehicles, a 6% year - on - year increase [2]. - The State Council executive meeting proposed consumption and service industry loan subsidy policies. In July, the China Logistics Prosperity Index was 50.5%, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month [2].