Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-06 09:44Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The actual tin ore output from Myanmar's Wa State will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. In July, the increase in smelting output was due to multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. On the demand side, after the end of the rush to install photovoltaic equipment, the operating rate of some producers has decreased. The electronics industry has entered the off - season, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Downstream enterprises are still in the traditional consumption off - season, with overall orders being rather dull. The recent high prices have suppressed the restocking sentiment of downstream enterprises. The spot premium has slightly dropped to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventories have increased slightly. Technically, the position has decreased, and both long and short positions are cautious. Attention should be paid to the battle around the M60 line. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 266,940 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan; the 3 - month LME tin price is 33,300 US dollars/ton, up 175 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts for Shanghai tin is - 470 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The main contract position for Shanghai tin is 24,719 lots, down 1,669 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is 193 lots, up 184 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 1,875 tons, down 25 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,671 tons, up 254 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 485 tons, down 25 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 7,358 tons, up 75 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The SMM1 tin spot price is 267,600 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 267,820 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 660 yuan/ton, up 1,150 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 42 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 252,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 256,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,790 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [2]. Industry News - Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, may choose the chairman through the vacancy of governors, and will announce drug and chip tariffs within a week and significantly increase tariffs on India. The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July was 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8. The ISM services PMI is close to the low point in May and the lowest level since June 2024. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup believe that if the non - farm data deteriorates further, the Fed may cut interest rates aggressively by 50 basis points in September, with the terminal interest rate at 3% or lower. The central bank and other seven departments will provide financial support for new industrialization and strengthen medium - and long - term loan support for digital infrastructure construction [2].