瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. Industrial silicon rose due to the increase in coking coal today, but the spot price did not perform well. It is expected that the spot will drag down the upward movement of futures. In terms of operation, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 250 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 208,736 lots, a week - on - week increase of 56,958 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 66,326 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 9,647 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 50,806 lots, a week - on - week increase of 494 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon was - 25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,250 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the basis of the Si main contract was 550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 250 yuan/ton; the DMC spot price was 12,300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke was 1,750 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, all with no week - on - week change [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output was 305,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory was 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon import volume was 2,211.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume was 52,919.65 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,200 yuan/ton; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 70.08%, a week - on - week increase of 4.97%; the monthly aluminum alloy output was 1.669 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume was 20,187.85 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On August 1st, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on the Special Energy - Saving Supervision Tasks for the Polysilicon Industry in 2025, involving 41 enterprises. In the industrial silicon sector, the supply situation this week is complex. The resumption of production in the south - western production areas during the wet season is accelerating, and many enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan have started furnaces. New production capacity is expected to be released next week, mainly from small and medium - sized enterprises, which will challenge the current price. Meanwhile, the production cut in Xinjiang is less than expected, and the superimposed supply effect of the north - western and south - western regions will gradually appear. There is also a large potential for production capacity release [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the demand side, in the organic silicon sector, the spot price of organic silicon has risen, the production profit of enterprises has slightly declined, the operating rate of enterprises has increased, which supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon sector, mainstream enterprises are currently reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, and the downstream photovoltaic industry is "anti - involution", with a significant decline in demand. Although the output increased slightly last week, the increase is limited. It is expected that the merger and reorganization of production capacity will intensify, and the potential production capacity will be gradually released in August, with a slight increase in the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy sector, enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed, inventory continues to grow, prices are falling, and they are in a passive de - stocking state, which is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries continues to slow down [2]