瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead remained flat this week, while demand gradually weakened. Considering anti - involution speculation, it is recommended to place long orders on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,855 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,975.5 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars [2] - The spread between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead was 5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 105,235 lots, down 7,502 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,127 lots, down 1,591 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 58,656 tons, down 351 tons [2] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 63,283 tons, up 29 tons; the LME lead inventory was 272,975 tons, down 1,250 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,725 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,940 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan [2] - The basis of the lead main contract was - 130 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 41.92 dollars/ton, up 5.94 dollars [2] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 15,953 yuan, down 226 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,770 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8 percentage points [2] - The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [2] - The average operating rate of primary lead was 77.49%, up 3.68 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 34,100 tons, up 600 tons [2] - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 60 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons [2] - The global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industrial Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The monthly export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,107.14 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of lead - acid batteries was 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,975 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2] - The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries was 1,771.53 points, up 38.86 points; the monthly automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles [2] - The monthly new - energy vehicle production was 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump will announce tariffs on drugs and chips in the next week, with a maximum drug tariff of 250%. He will significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours. If the EU fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US, a 35% tariff will be imposed. The US trade deficit in June was - 60.2 billion dollars, the smallest since September 2023 [2] - The US non - manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.8 in June to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5. The ISM new order index in July dropped from 51.3 in June to 50.3, and export orders contracted for the fourth time in five months [2] - Trump said Vance is most likely to be the next presidential candidate, and Secretary of State Rubio would be helpful if he works with Vance [2] - Trump may soon announce a new Fed chairman, with four candidates. Bessent hopes to stay in the Treasury [2] - Trump will decide whether to impose sanctions on countries that buy Russian energy after the meeting between the Middle East envoy and Russia on Wednesday [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Affected by the decline in lead prices, the operating rate of primary lead smelters increased, leading to an increase in production. Currently, the operating rate of primary lead remains strong compared to recycled lead, and its by - product revenue is stable. However, as lead prices continue to fluctuate, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions [2] - For recycled lead, due to the tight supply of waste battery raw materials, smelters lack confidence, and the overall supply is tight. From the actual resumption of production rhythm, the resumption progress is slow due to cost inversion [2] - Today, the price of 1 lead rebounded by 150 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric batteries remained stable, with prices in some enterprises in Jiangxi and Shanxi increasing by 50 yuan/ton. The tax - free price of waste electric batteries was reported at 9,900 - 9,950 yuan/ton, and the purchase price at the recycling end was reported at 9,820 - 9,880 yuan/ton, following the increase of manufacturers [2] - The lead - acid battery industry, the main consumer area of lead, is approaching the traditional peak consumption season. However, in the context of rising prices, spot transactions are dull, and downstream enterprises generally adopt a wait - and - see attitude. Although lead - acid batteries have seen price increases, the inventory clearance of dealers is slow, which greatly suppresses the enthusiasm of battery factories to start production. If the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream enterprises continues, the demand for lead in the lead - acid battery industry will hardly improve significantly, and the overall demand side will remain weak [2] - Recently, the inventory has shown a slight upward trend, and the number of warehouse receipts has also increased, indicating a slowdown in overall demand. Although the lead - acid battery industry is approaching the peak season, from the current inventory data, demand has not effectively driven inventory clearance. If the demand side still fails to pick up this week, domestic inventory may continue to accumulate, putting pressure on lead prices [2]