Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-06 09:57Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Different varieties of apple spot prices show a divergent trend, with the purchase prices of some early - maturing varieties declining, while the opening - scale price of Gala apples is acceptable. The low inventory of old crops still provides some support, but the trading atmosphere is average, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Technically, the Apple 2510 contract is running above the support line formed by the previous two lows, showing a bullish bias. It is recommended to conduct light - position trial long trades while controlling risks [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 7915 yuan/ton, the position of the main contract is 74614 lots, the number of warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 354 lots, with a decrease of 2763 and an increase of 771 respectively compared to the previous period [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices in Shandong Yantai Qixia, Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan have no change compared to the previous period, with prices of 4 yuan/jin, 4 yuan/jin, 2.4 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.75 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06. The Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.1, a decrease of 0.01; the national total apple cold - storage inventory is 61.61 million tons, a decrease of 8.84 million tons; the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.03, a decrease of 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples is 40000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons; the monthly export value is 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0.6 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 3.73 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.6; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 5.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08. The early - morning average daily arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Guangdong Xiaqiao, and Guangdong Chalong wholesale markets is 10, 15.6, and 1.2 vehicles respectively, with an increase of 1 vehicle at the Guangdong Xiaqiao market [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 20.9%, a decrease of 0.64; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 20.84%, a decrease of 0.7 [2]. Industry News - On August 6, 2025, the early - maturing paper - bag Gala apples in the western production areas started trading, with buyers making exploratory purchases. The price of 70 and above with more than 50% redness in the Heyang production area is between 4.60 - 5.00 yuan/jin. The inventory trading in the Shandong production area is a bit chaotic, with farmers' fruits priced according to quality and transactions made through bargaining, and merchants' fruits continuing to be shipped out on their own, with an average shipping speed. The Apple 2510 contract rose 0.93% on Wednesday. According to Mysteel's statistics, the preliminary estimate of the national apple output based on the bagging volume survey data is 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of July 30, 2025, the inventory of apple cold - storage in the national main production areas is 61.61 million tons, a decrease of 8.84 million tons compared to last week, with a slightly slower shipping speed compared to last week and basically the same as last year [2].