Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-06 09:52Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - For corn: Internationally, the high output prospects of US corn due to good crop conditions and favorable weather continue to put pressure on international corn prices. Domestically, the increasing pressure of policy - grain release, cooling auction results, high cost pressure on downstream enterprises, and weak procurement lead to a narrow and weak downward trend in purchase prices. The corn futures market also shows a weak trend [2]. - For corn starch: The supply - demand imbalance is obvious. With the recovery of the industry's operating rate and weak downstream demand, the inventory has increased, and the market is in a weak state, suggesting a bearish view [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Corn: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2259 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 722961 hands, down 45514 hands; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 16995 hands, up 18990 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 146425 hands, down 5515 hands [2]. - Corn starch: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2662 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 147032 hands, down 6501 hands; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 9427 hands, up 53 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 7450 hands, up 3000 hands [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 403 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn: The futures closing price of the active contract is 401.5 cents/bushel, down 5.5 cents/bushel; the total open interest is 1575283 contracts, up 81613 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133467 contracts, up 416 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2395.1 yuan/ton, down 2.94 yuan/ton; the average price at Jinzhou Port is 2320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1927.76 yuan/ton, up 1.43 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2710 yuan/ton, 2950 yuan/ton, and 2880 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged; the basis of the main contract is 56 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2437.44 yuan/ton, down 0.17 yuan/ton; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch is 140 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is 36 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Production: The predicted annual yields of the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 401.85 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively, all unchanged [2]. - Sown area: The predicted annual sown areas of the US, Brazil, Argentina, China are 35.37 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively, all unchanged [2]. - Inventory: The inventories at southern and northern ports are 88.9 million tons, up 62000 tons, and 291 million tons, down 13000 tons respectively; the inventory of deep - processed corn is 379.7 million tons, down 20.8 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 16 million tons, down 3 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27780 tons, up 4060 tons [2]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 132 million tons, up 2.7 million tons [2][3]. Downstream Situation - Feed production: The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the weekly inventory days of sample feed corn is 30.58 days, down 0.29 days; the weekly consumption of deep - processed corn is 113.77 million tons, up 7.53 million tons [2]. - Corn starch processing profit: The processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 121 yuan/ton, - 58 yuan/ton, and - 67 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 7 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton [2]. - Operating rate: The operating rates of alcohol and starch enterprises are 41.8%, up 3.17%, and 53.83%, up 2.07% respectively [2]. Option Market - Historical volatility: The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of corn are 8.89%, up 0.26%, and 7.44%, down 0.07% respectively [2]. - Implied volatility: The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options of corn are 12.93% and 12.92% respectively, both up 2.78% [2]. Industry News - As of August 2, the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn in the 2024/25 season is 75.2%, compared with 66.1% a week ago, 91.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 77.5% [2]. - The price of Brazilian corn has received "some support" recently due to the delayed harvest in some areas, but it still faces downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term as the harvest progresses and the total output is expected to be close to 200 million tons [2]. - As of August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn is 73%, higher than the market expectation of 72%, and the weather is favorable for corn growth in the Midwest [2].