Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-06 09:52Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core View On Wednesday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The China Iron and Steel Association's meeting focused on "controlling production capacity, countering involution, strengthening collaboration, and promoting transformation." In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly, with a low capacity utilization rate of 46.27%. The apparent demand declined, and inventory increased. Overall, the steel market is in the off - season with falling demand, but positive macro - expectations and rising coal and coke prices provide cost support. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows a low - level rebound. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,234 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the position was 1,652,569 lots, down 56,263 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 93,170 lots, up 89 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 75 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 89,256 tons, up 893 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 217 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,390 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,477 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,400 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 156 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 774 yuan/wet ton, down 4 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory was 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons; the Tangshan billet inventory was 1.1102 million tons, up 41,000 tons. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, down 0.56 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The sample steel mill rebar output was 2.1106 million tons, down 9,000 tons; the rebar capacity utilization rate was 46.27%, down 0.20 percentage points; the sample steel mill rebar inventory was 1.6215 million tons, down 35,200 tons; the 35 - city rebar social inventory was 3.8414 million tons, up 111,700 tons. The independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate was 69.79%, up 1.04 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons; the Chinese rebar monthly output was 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons; the steel net export volume was 921,000 tons, down 89,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters; the commercial housing inventory was 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2] Industry News - The new "C50 Wind Direction Index" shows that the market expects government bonds to support an increase in new social financing in July, with the substitution effect potentially causing the new loan scale to turn negative, but the growth rate remains high. In late July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% daily decline; 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.856 million tons, a 4.5% daily decline; and 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons, a 0.5% daily increase [2]